The end for the Russian human rights organization Memorial means a heavy loss for Russian civil society. However, all hope has not yet been given up: Memorial can appeal against the ban at the European Court of Human Rights. It is doubtful whether that will ultimately be enough to continue to exist. But a ruling by the Strasbourg judges would embarrass the Russian government: For years Moscow has accused the West of disregarding its own supranational organizations. So far, Russia has always attached importance to formal correctness, for example when integrating the OSCE – before it came under massive pressure from the West. But the Kremlin may be changing its strategy with regard to international organizations and values - and will also want to ignore them.
From this point of view, the ban on Memorial is clearly a sign of weakness. Because no self-confident and self-contained government would have to ban a small group of civil rights activists – whose focus is also dealing with the past.
However, Russian President Putin is under enormous pressure: The presence of Western troops in Ukraine poses an existential threat to him. Putin’s helpless attempt to demand security guarantees from the USA and NATO and to launch them in advance in the media shows: In the Kremlin one is nervous. Whether we are really on the eve of a new, great war in Europe cannot be predicted. But the US government, headed by the aged President Biden, is also weak. In such a scenario, mistakes are easy. The opponents sense an enemy behind every bush. With the Julian Assange case, the West has little credibility in terms of human rights. Memorial is painful collateral damage from the increasing militarization of politics.