Will invade or not invade? This is the question that many people are asking themselves, this is in the shadow of the heavy tension between Russia and Ukraine.
Earlier today (Sunday) the British defense minister said that the world’s conduct towards Putin was reminiscent of what had been in the Berlin talks, in which the optimistic world relied on Hitler and wanted to reach a peace agreement with him, meanwhile building its power. He added that “Putin may shut down his tanks and we will all go home, but there is a fragrance of Munich in the air from part of the West. There is a very high probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine at any moment.”
“I returned from Moscow on Saturday morning and because we are worried about the deteriorating situation in Ukraine I canceled a long weekend holiday abroad with my children that was planned a long time ago and I will return to London.”
In recent hours, large numbers of Russian military vehicles have been seen rushing towards the border with Ukraine, and perhaps it is time to elaborate – where Ukraine will invade.
Invasion from the East
Donetsk and Hansk are two provinces in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian Ukrainians have been fortifying themselves for several years, challenging Ukraine and expressing their desire to annex Russia and disengage from Ukraine.
Since there are already Ukrainian rebels in these provinces who can help Russia, this seems to be the most convenient invasion point for Putin, and probably, in any invasion, whether large or small, Putin will be helped in the territory held by the rebels.
Most of the videos we have been exposed to in recent weeks, which show many military forces traveling, are forces that have made their way to these areas.
Invasion of Belarus
Russian President Putin’s best ally is neighbor Alexei Lukashenko, the man who has earned the dubious title of “the last dictator in Europe.”
Officially, Belarus began a military exercise with Russia in its territory three days ago, and the ‘exercise’ is due to end next week.
According to most intelligence estimates, an invasion of Belarus (located north of Ukraine) is particularly possible in the event that Putin decides to invade deep into Ukraine and occupy its capital – Kiev.
Russia’s military deployment in Belarus is the largest in the region since the end of the Cold War three decades ago.
At the same time, a battle in the border area between Belarus and Ukraine can be a particularly muddy battle. According to estimates, “in some places it is probably impossible for motorized forces to pass when the swamps are wet.”
Invasion from the Crimea
Another possibility is a Russian invasion of the Crimea, which it captured from Ukraine in 2014. It is still unclear whether Russia will choose to invade from this region as well, but according to satellite images, it seems that the military forces in the region have increased significantly in recent times.
The Russian Ministry of Defense itself has released a video of a number of ships making their way to the area as part of what the Russians called an “exercise.”
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It is difficult to estimate whether and when Putin will invade Ukraine, but in any case the Russian army seems prepared and ready for any scenario – even a large and massive occupation.