2024-08-07 16:43:43
Whatever the reason, this sense of momentum has led the Kremlin to reject Ukraine’s latest peace overtures and adopt the maximalist stance that is a prerequisite for any negotiations with Kiev. However, Moscow’s triumphalism hides the reality – according to almost all empirical indicators, the war chosen by Russia was disastrous for the Kremlin, says the politician.
According to him, the first thing to mention is Moscow’s own achievements on the battlefield – or lack thereof. Contrary to official rhetoric, the Russian military is not making any significant progress in Ukraine. Since the beginning of this year, as confirmed by Ukrainian officials, Russia’s doubling of military efforts has brought it less than 1 percent. additional Ukrainian territory, and in total it still controls less than 18 percent. territories of the country.
But even this small victory came at an extremely high cost. Between January and April of this year alone, the war in Ukraine claimed almost 83,000 Russian lives, and it is estimated that Moscow could lose another quarter of a million people by the end of the year. If this happens, from 2022 Russia will have lost a total of 690,000 people by February. By comparison, this grisly number is nearly 50 times the number of Soviet soldiers who died during the Soviet Union’s disastrous decade-long occupation of Afghanistan from 1979-1989.
The consequences of this cannot be overestimated, says I. Berman. Based on Russia’s losses so far alone, British military officials estimate that “it will take Putin five years to rebuild Russia’s military by 2022.” February level”. And if in 2024 It will cost Russia as much as some predict, it may take much longer. In other words, the Russian president has almost completely put his country’s prospects for military greatness and renewed great power status on the line in the name of conquering Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia’s war significantly worsened its overall strategic position. Kremlin officials have said their war with Ukraine is a natural consequence of years of NATO push into Russia’s fringes. But Moscow’s aggression has not deterred the Alliance – far from it. Just a few years ago, trust in the bloc was clearly in decline – and even on the continent where it was founded, NATO was seen by many as increasingly obsolete.
This is not the case now. The war in Ukraine breathed new life into the bloc’s mission and activities. Since the beginning of the conflict, NATO has increased the pace of its activities, improved Alliance interoperability and expanded the area of its military operations. It also welcomed two new members, with Sweden and Finland abandoning their long-standing neutrality for collective defense protection. As a result, the Alliance has moved physically much closer to Russia’s borders, the exact opposite of the outcome Putin is believed to have sought when he launched the war.
Other changes are taking place. After the Cold War, it became fashionable to think of Europe as a “post-war” power, a bloc that has lost both the ability and the will to defend itself and relies on diplomacy and economic involvement to stay relevant. However, in the last two and a half years, this trend has changed significantly, as the need to defend Ukraine has fueled European conversations about increased defense production and the need for a real defense industrial base.
Russian officials and supporters can take solace in the fact that the new Republican administration in Washington may soon make life harder for Kiev and easier for the Kremlin to conquer. That may happen, although a second Trump term should not necessarily be seen as a death sentence for American support for Ukraine — if Kiev changes its mind and is able to convince the new administration that it is capable of achieving a decisive victory on the battlefield in the near future.
Whatever the political outcome in Washington, the reality for Russia will remain the same. Putin’s military adventure cost the country dearly, both strategically and humanly. Officials in Moscow will paint this result rosy. However, for the Russians themselves, the Ukraine conflict should not be considered a victory, no matter how Kremlin propagandists try to spin it, writes the senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington.
Parengta pagal „Newsweek“.
2024-08-07 16:43:43