2024-07-12 16:31:00
Russia is not only at war with Ukraine. In the fight against the West, President Putin is using a large arsenal of weapons.
The US television channel CNN cites five sources at the official level, according to which the United States and Germany have revealed Russian attack plans against executives of defense companies in Europe. Political scientist and Russia expert Gerhard Mangott of the University of Innsbruck explains Russia’s hybrid warfare against the West.
In light of Russia’s clear assassination plans against the head of the arms company Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger: Does this fit the picture of President Putin’s hybrid warfare? Gerhard Mangott: It is conceivable that there were Russian plans in this regard, which would not surprise me and would also be plausible. It would also be outrageous at the same time. As a scientist, I still need to be careful about such reports because there is no evidence for this and it cannot be presented. That would provide information about the sources of the Western secret services. If this plan of attack existed, it is of course an aspect of hybrid warfare. And of course Russia has this war against the West. That is without doubt.
Why would such an assassination plan be plausible? First, I contradict myself. The Russian side would have to ask itself what the point of killing Mr. Papperger would be. Rheinmetall would have a new CEO, and Rheinmetall would continue its defense production in cooperation with the German government. But the point is: Russia seems no longer to be deterred from not only committing acts of sabotage in the West, as evidenced by arson at various facilities. Russia has already killed people in Europe through its secret services. Russia may have promised this action to demonstrate what they are capable and willing to do. That was the message if there had been a successful assassination attempt.
Could Russia also see the CEO as a target because Rheinmetall is not only building a factory for armored personnel carriers in Ukraine, but also plays a major role in building the arms industry there? That will definitely happen. Rheinmetall is at the forefront of building production facilities in Ukraine. This reveals Rheinmetall, even if they are not alone in this.
What is hybrid warfare and what does Russia use? These include, first of all, the disinformation operations and strategies carried out by Russia on social media and beyond to influence discourse in the West. This also includes cyber-attacks, either attacks that have already been carried out on important Western information systems or, to some extent, staged cyber-attacks that would be activated in the event of a specific war to disable Western systems. Russia’s acts of sabotage are part of hybrid warfare, as is increased espionage.
What is Russia already using? Everything I have mentioned is not only possible, verified and confirmed threats from Russia. You already have a good picture of the situation. The only question is whether there will be a good reaction. Significant improvements are still needed.
Does the West need to catch up on hybrid warfare? The resistance from the West has increased significantly compared to the time before the full Russian invasion of Ukraine. But much more must be done.
Which area? It was well done that the European states in particular have expelled a large number of so-called Russian diplomats in the field of espionage, who were clearly sent to the West for intelligence activities. A lot is already happening in the fight against disinformation and propaganda, but there is more to come. But this is only possible in cooperation with the sponsoring companies behind certain social networks. This is not always easy because they pursue interests other than protecting Western states from disinformation. You also need to be more alert and better prepared for acts of sabotage. So invest more in protecting critical infrastructure assets and critical companies, for example.
Despite several “peace initiatives,” all signs seem to point to further escalation. How do you assess the situation in Ukraine at the moment? There is no negotiation initiative even the name. Of course there are conversations in the background. And of course it is not only Hungarian President Orban who talks to Putin locally, but there are also these channels from other Western governments to Moscow. It would also be irresponsible if they weren’t there.
But neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian side is currently interested in a negotiated solution. Both still believe in military success in this war, although the definition of what would be a military victory has changed over time. Neither side is willing to negotiate a cease-fire.
Has recent increases in arms and ammunition deliveries improved the military situation in Ukraine? Ukraine’s situation with artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft defenses, defenses or personnel has improved. But it cannot be assumed that, with the military aid that has now been arranged and initiated by the West, Ukraine will be able to launch attacks in the foreseeable future to recapture the territory occupied by Russia. This fails because of the number of personnel in the Ukrainian army.
Once again on hybrid warfare: will Russia expand it further? Without a doubt. Since no one intends to degenerate into open war between Russia and NATO, and I hope it doesn’t, all options for hybrid warfare will be exhausted.
What else can be imagined? Everything could be tracked even more. For example, I have not yet mentioned that Russia is trying to buy political representatives with good money, ie members of the leadership of political parties or members of parliament at various levels. Russia has also succeeded in this, which has been proven in some cases.
Are you talking about buying politicians, especially from right-wing populist parties in Europe? Of course, but also from left-wing populist parties. It applies to all parties that try to undermine the dominant narrative of the West, even with fabricated or distorted facts. All of these people are interesting targets for Russian bribery and influence peddling.
Gerhard Mangott he is a political scientist, expert on Russia and Eastern Europe at the University of Innsbruck.
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