Mark Galeotti speaks clearly: Russia now lacks well-trained soldiers and mercenaries are an example of its weakness. In his book «Putin’s Wars. From Chechnya to Ukraine »(Desperta Ferro) he analyzes the expansion of Moscow and what lies behind it.
What does Putin want with the wars he is waging?
Each war has been different in detail, similar in principle. Putin’s goal, since he first assumed the presidency in 1999-2000, has been to re-establish a powerful and centralized state and to assert his status as a great power. That means punishing rebels (Chechnya), neighboring states that don’t seem to realize they are part, as he sees it, of Moscow’s (Georgia) sphere of influence, seizing land he believes to be rightfully Russian. (Crimea) or protect their allies (Syria). This is the common feature. Of course, his disastrous move to Ukraine was the culmination of this process, as he does not believe that Ukraine is a real country, but part of the Russian world, so he felt that he could not let her go.
What is the main reform that Putin has included in the armed forces?
Putin’s main contribution has been two decades of sustained and significant spending on the military. It is worth remembering that although he is a big fan of the military, he has no significant military experience or knowledge, so he is to some extent dependent on the advice he receives from his officers and generals. The irony is that the most significant military reforms, after the 2008 Georgia war, were based on the assumption that Russia would not engage in a major ground war.
“The invasion was badly planned and Russia lost its best troops in the first days”
Putin has introduced mercenaries into his army.
Mercenaries were originally used by Putin in the Donbas region of Ukraine starting in 2014 and in Syria starting in 2015. They represent a broader change in the nature of warfare. The degree to which they are used in Ukraine reflects a serious weakness: the lack of trained volunteer soldiers. Putin is unwilling to deploy large numbers of recruits for fear of domestic political backlash, so mercenaries are being used to try to expand hard-pressed Russian forces.
Why is it failing in Ukraine?
There are many reasons. The first is that Putin dramatically misread Ukraine, Ukrainians, and their willingness and ability to resist. He thought that Russian troops could take the country quickly and easily, facing little resistance, so the invasion was poorly planned, under-resourced, and fundamentally misdirected, and as a result, Russia lost many of its best troops in the first few years. days. Another point is how well the Ukrainians have responded. It is not just that they have out-fought the Russians, but have out-thought them, proving to be more flexible and imaginative. After all, they have been preparing for this war since 2014, and they have been preparing well.
“The other war is the one waged by Russia and the West in the fields of economy, politics and culture”
Anything else?
Yes, there are actually two wars going on: a conventional military one being fought in Ukraine and a very 21st century one between Russia and the West being fought in the fields of economics, politics and culture. It is not just that the West is providing crucial military and financial assistance to Ukraine, it is attacking Russia’s ability to wage war. It is, for example, starting to run out of precision-guided missiles and is unable to make enough to keep up with their use, because it cannot produce the necessary microchips.
Ukraine seemed weak. Have the Ukrainians misled Putin?
Ukraine has spent eight years preparing for war and is fully mobilized; Russia tried to fight this war with a peacetime army, so it didn’t have anything like the numerical advantage an attacker needs. Although it is beginning to mobilize, it suffered such losses in the early stages of the war that it will be difficult to recover it. Putin fooled himself.
Why are Russian soldiers so poorly prepared?
Many of the professional Russian soldiers, especially paratroopers and Spetsnaz special forces, are quite skilled. However, so many were killed at the start that Putin now has to rely on second-tier troops, mobilized reservists and other less-skilled forces. And there is a psychological dimension. Because Putin did not make the final decision to invade until the last minute and did not communicate his plans to his soldiers, most did not expect to fight Ukraine. It came as a shock.
“We failed to encourage Russian democracy in the 1990s”
How have corruption and oligarchies influenced the Russian army?
It is painfully apparent just how much corruption has eaten at the heart of the Russian military. We have seen trucks that are not equipped with tires suitable for the terrain, but with cheap Chinese imports and because of this they get stuck off the road. We have seen medicine cabinets where medicines were replaced by ampoules of water. “Safe” military radios that were nothing more than shells of Chinese walkie-talkies that you can buy for a couple of euros online. Although, ironically, Russia’s Main Military Prosecutor’s Office has been warning about this for years, it only became apparent when it was tested in war.
But?
There is also another type of corruption: the political system. Putin has created a medieval-style court where everyone is expected to flatter the monarch and tell him what he wants to hear, not what he needs to hear. This played a crucial role in fueling the disastrous miscalculations behind the invasion ever since.
Is there a risk of nuclear war?
I think this is unlikely. But we can never rule it out. Putin hints that he would use nukes more to scare the West in hopes of encouraging those who argue that the risk is such that we should force Ukraine into an ugly and unfair peace deal.
What does a defeat mean for Putin?
It’s the big question: I’m not sure Ukraine really knows and we certainly don’t have a consensus in the West. Does it mean going back to pre-invasion lines? The return of the Crimea, territory that almost all Russians believe is theirs by right? Does it mean that Putin goes to a war crimes tribunal in The Hague? Honestly, it will depend on Ukraine’s success on the battlefield and the willingness of the West to finance this war. Would Putin survive a defeat? Once again the answer will depend on what type of defeat occurs. What is clear is that from now on Russia will be a weaker and more isolated nation, far from the great power that she dreamed of being. It will take years, perhaps decades, to recover.
Did the EU and NATO make a mistake by not trying to get closer to Russia after 1989?
-A lot. We failed to encourage Russian democracy in the 1990s and largely ignored Russia’s interests. In the process we made it more likely that a nationalist like Putin would emerge. Obviously, none of this exonerates Putin: this is his aggressive warfare, and it is based on massive misunderstandings about NATO and the West. However, we missed a key strategic opportunity in the 1990s, and I hope we will not repeat that mistake when this terrible war is over.