Moscow fears losing military power in the Sahel and putting its only access to the Mediterranean, through Tartus, at risk
December 11, 2024 . Updated at 7.26pm
After decades of support for Al Assad’s dynastic regime, Russia admitted on Wednesday that it had had contacts with Syrian rebels define e protect the future of your military bases for fear of losing influence both in the Mediterranean, in the Sahel and in the Middle East.negotiations which for the moment remain relatively secret and are accompanied by partial evacuations of personnel and war material to protect them in Moscow so that they are not used by the provisional Syrian government.
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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskovunderlined this Wednesday that “There is no other choice” but to deal with Hayat Tahrir al Shamthe group that led the downfall of one of Moscow’s favorite puppets, Bashar al Assad. “Our bases are there, our diplomatic mission is there and, of course, the issue of ensuring the security of these facilities is extremely critically important,” he told the Interfax agency.
The swarm of Russian bases in the country were used to support vladimir Putin’s regime has been involved in the civil war in the Arab country as 2015. But they also served as guarantors of Moscow’s influence in the Mediterranean and Africa.
Losing the Tartus naval base It would be a serious blow to Russian geostrategyas it would be left without the only direct access it has to the Mediterranean Sea and the army would be forced to withdraw its ships to the baltic due to the pressure of Ukrainian operations against the Muscovite navy in the Black Sea.
evacuations and losses
The loss of the second most important base, the Hmeimim air base, would also damage its interests in Ukraine, but especially in the Sahel and North Africa. From this position, Russia has sent planes not only to fight Syrian rebels, but also to support uprisings in Libya, Central African Republic and sudan, to wipe out Western influence from the continent. All this with the help of the Wagner Groupwhose mercenaries were deployed from those facilities.
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The Kremlin also had several military posts in Palmyra, Hama, Shayrat and another airport in Tiyas.. Furthermore, it has already lost the base that it had taken from the Americans after their abandonment in Manbij in 2019 and that of Kobane, from where they negotiated the Astana agreements for a ceasefire with the Syrian rebels in 2020, now a dead letter after the war flash of these. The same fate befell Deir Ezzor, already in rebel hands.
In parallel with the negotiations, ukrainian intelligence revealed that several ships are already stationed 13 kilometers off the coast of Tartus evacuate military personnel and equipment to protect them to Moscow, as well as aircraft to Hmeimim in case it is necessary to remove additional personnel.
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Russia Middle East Bashar al assad Syria
How could the evolving situation in Syria impact Russia’s military interests in the Sahel region?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Military Analyst Dr. Elena morozov
Time.news Editor: Good evening, Dr. Morozov. Thank you for joining us today. There have been significant developments regarding Russia’s military presence in Syria,particularly concerning the naval base in Tartus. Can you shed some light on why Moscow is now engaging with Syrian rebels after decades of supporting Assad?
Dr. Elena Morozov: Good evening, and thank you for having me. yes,it’s quite a remarkable shift for Russia. Historically, the Kremlin has been steadfast in its support for Bashar al-Assad, but the evolving situation in Syria—especially with the rising influence of various rebel groups—has forced Moscow into a more flexible position. Thier primary aim is to safeguard their geopolitical interests and military assets, particularly in Tartus, which is their only access point to the Mediterranean.
Time.news Editor: The article mentions that these negotiations are relatively secretive. Do you think this indicates a level of desperation on Russia’s part to maintain its influence in the region?
Dr. Elena Morozov: That’s certainly one way to interpret this. Russia is facing multiple challenges, not only from the rebels but also from shifting dynamics in the Middle East where regional powers are reassessing their alliances. By reaching out to the Syrian rebels, Russia seems to be trying to preemptively secure its military presence and prevent a complete loss of influence, which could further destabilize its operations in the Mediterranean and even ramifications in the Sahel region, where they also have vested interests.
Time.news editor: Speaking of the Sahel,how does Russia’s involvement there inform their strategy in Syria,and vice versa?
Dr. Elena Morozov: The Sahel is another critical area for Russian influence,particularly with the growth of militant groups and a rising vacuum of power. Moscow has been keen on establishing military partnerships there as part of its broader strategy to counter Western influence in Africa. so, if Russia loses foothold in Syria, it could weaken its negotiating position in other regions, including the Sahel, where they want to maintain a credible presence. The interconnectedness of these theaters is crucial for Russia’s global strategy.
Time.news Editor: This situation is quite fluid. With personnel and war material being evacuated to Moscow, as reported, where do you see this heading in the immediate future?
Dr. Elena Morozov: The partial evacuations suggest a protective measure.It indicates that Russia is preparing for potential scenarios where its assets could be compromised. In the near term, we might witness a temporary titration of their military involvement in Syria, as they reassess their strategies. However, I expect that Moscow will also double down on diplomatic efforts with various actors, including negotiated settlements with the rebels, to stabilize their standing in the region.
Time.news Editor: there’s a mention of the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has been pivotal in recent developments. How does such an entity factor into Russia’s calculations moving forward?
Dr. Elena Morozov: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of the dominant forces in opposition-controlled areas of Syria. As they have shown capability and influence, engaging with them is vital for Russia to secure stable negotiations. By acknowledging the reality of their power, Russia can adjust its strategies and potentially find a way to coexist with various factions. This pragmatic approach underlines the complexities involved in not just maintaining military power but also political viability in an evolving landscape.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Morozov, for your insights into this intricate situation. It’s clear that Russia’s actions in syria will have lasting implications not only for the Middle East but also for its broader geopolitical strategy across Europe and Africa. We appreciate your expertise.
Dr. Elena Morozov: Thank you for having me. It’s an important topic with profound implications for global security.
