Russia has launched a coordinated campaign of covert sabotage against European armaments manufacturers and unleashed a massive wave of overnight missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, targeting critical military production facilities, logistics chains, and maritime cargo shipping in the Black Sea.
Covert Sabotage Targets NATO Defense Infrastructure
Russia has launched a fresh wave of attacks on European armaments factories under the guise of plausible deniability, according to Western intelligence sources. The Kremlin is recruiting local gang members to sabotage defence manufacturers to test Nato’s resolve. The attacks appear carefully calculated to fall just short of triggering Article 5, Nato’s mutual defence clause, intelligence officials believe. This week Latvia rounded up and detained three of its own nationals on suspicion of an arson attack against a drone manufacturer in neighbouring Estonia.
A building belonging to Milrem Robotics, a Tallinn-based firm that supplies weapons to Ukraine, was set ablaze overnight on Aug 15. The firm is one of two foreign suppliers of unmanned ground vehicles to Kyiv’s armed forces. At the time of the incident, Kristen Michal, Estonia’s prime minister, said investigators were looking into whether it was an act of sabotage and if Russia was involved. The Milrem arson attack fits into a broader pattern of suspected or confirmed sabotage against Ukraine’s military supply chains across Nato territory.
A Nato official stated that in recent years, Russia had accelerated its destabilisation campaigns against Allies through cyber attacks, assassination attempts and acts of sabotage.
Other officials argue that what has become known as the Kremlin’s “hybrid war” is aimed at escalating tensions amongst Nato’s allies and deterring support for Ukraine. Since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 there has been a steady stream of unexplained attacks across Europe. Lithuania also charged six people over an attempt to burn down a factory supplying radio-wave scanners to Kyiv. Earlier this year, a fire virtually destroyed a Czech plant making drones and thermal optics for Ukraine, and four suspects were detained as part of the investigation into Russian involvement.
A Western intelligence assessment explained how Russia’s notorious GRU military intelligence agency, known for its attacks on foreign soil using highly trained agents, had since turned to using criminal gangs. In an interview with The Telegraph last March, Normunds Mežviets, the head of Latvia’s state security service (VDD), said that in their experience, they did not see officers of the GRU travelling there physically to their country, adding that those officers stayed in Russia where it was safe and were not taking any risks for their own operational and physical security.
Explosions and Fires at Key Munitions Plants
On Aug 10, a major explosion ripped through a plant belonging to EMCO, one of Bulgaria’s largest private arms manufacturers, which produces 155mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The initial blaze was triggered by a fire in a lorry parked near a storage warehouse. Three days later a similar blast rocked a munitions factory operated by KNDS Ammo Italy in Colleferro on the outskirts of Rome, caused by a so-far unexplained fire that had broken out in a gunpowder processing unit.
Italian and Bulgarian officials have both sought to play down any possible Russian involvement in the incidents. But like with the cases in Estonia, Italy and Bulgaria, Russia very rarely leaves any evidence that would allow the attacks to be directly attributed to Moscow. The covert nature of the Kremlin-ordered attacks is seen as a deliberate ploy to sow discord amongst Nato allies. Eastern member states, such as Poland or the Baltic states, have been far more vocal in calling out Russia’s aggression in Europe.
While the VDD did not explicitly blame Russia, it did confirm the three suspects from the Estonia fire had been detained under powers used to tackle criminals providing assistance to a foreign state in action directed against another state. Those countries further west, such as Italy and Germany, are often not willing to attribute the incidents to Moscow over fears of an escalation, creating the division between Western allies that the Kremlin is seeking to expose.
Massive Overnight Missile Strikes Hit Ukrainian Defense Factories
Russia said on Thursday that its forces had carried out big overnight strikes on military factories across Ukraine, including in the capital Kyiv and in the western city of Lviv, and had struck three cargo ships in the Black Sea. The Defence Ministry said it had used land, sea and air-launched missiles, as well as strike drones, to hit the Mayak factory in Kyiv which it said was involved in the production of Ukrainian FP-1 and FP-2 strike drones. In the same statement, it said it had struck Kyiv’s Electrical Technical Plant which it said made strike and surveillance drones.
In the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, the ministry said Russia had struck the LORTA Aviation Factory which it said manufactured and serviced engines used in Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missiles as well as drones. In Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region, forces hit two factories making or storing various Ukrainian missiles, including Flamingos and Neptune missiles. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Akvaplast factory in Kryvyi Rih was struck, which Moscow said was involved in the design and assembly of strike drones, unmanned sea drones, and in repairing self-propelled howitzers.
Russian forces also struck a cargo ship in the port of Yuzhnyi (also known as Pivdennyi) in the Odesa region which it said had delivered military goods. Two cargo ships to the south and east of Odesa, which it said had been delivering arms and military equipment to the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk, had also been struck. Reuters could not independently confirm the battlefield report.
