The phone call between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday was “serious and substantial,” according to information from the White House and the Kremlin, as a White House official put it in a background discussion with representatives of the press after the meeting. The talks were “open, businesslike and mutually beneficial,” said a Kremlin spokesman, according to the Russian state news agency Tass. Both sides kept silent about the concrete content of the conversation. In the past few days, too, spokesmen for the two governments have limited themselves to announcing the timetable for diplomatic efforts: for example, Russian-American consultations, a meeting between NATO and Russia and an OSCE meeting are to be held in January.
The only detail that was launched by the Russian side is the special status of Donbass. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said, according to Tass, that US President Joe Biden has recognized that Donbass should be given “special status”. In any case, the Minsk agreements must be complied with, said Rudenko. However, this was not mentioned in the US briefing with the reporters. In the past few days, however, both of them have told US services magazines with comparative understanding that Russia’s concern in Ukraine is not about gaining new territories, but about keeping NATO away. Putin is not planning any further “annexation,” writes Foreign Affairs. Foreign Policy, on the other hand, gave the Russian ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, space for a guest contribution in which he wrote that developments in Ukraine would depend on how willing the West was to enter into dialogue. And even the dpa chose unusual words and wrote that Putin had “advertised a policy of détente in the USA and NATO”.
The Russian-American attempt at dialogue must be seen in a larger context. This is shown by the follow-up to the phone call from Moscow’s perspective: Putin spoke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday about the situation in Ukraine and his conversation with Biden. As a NATO country, Turkey has taken on a special role in mediating with Russia, as several Turkish geopolitical analysts explain in the Turkish newspaper Sabah, which is close to the government. Turkey understands that Russia sees the problem of Donbass as an internal matter for Ukraine, while Moscow has no room for negotiation in the case of the annexation of Crimea. As a NATO state, Turkey had always aggressively agreed to the western view that the Crimea would be an annexation. The analysts in the Sabah leave it open whether a deal can be found to the effect that Russia retains Crimea, while Donbass remains part of Ukraine while granting a statute of autonomy. After the phone call, the US side let the presidents know that any solution would have to be coordinated with those affected, including Ukraine. Kiev has so far categorically ruled out giving up Crimea.
However, Ukraine has a competent advocate in Turkey because Turkey always refers to the situation of the Crimean Tartars, a Muslim group for which Ankara claims a kind of protective power role. At the same time, Turkey plays an important role militarily: Turkey’s strength is mainly due to the drones with which Ankara had already forced Moscow to withdraw in several other regional conflicts: the Russians were unable to counter Turkish drone attacks in both Libya and Syria. In Idlib in particular, the Turkish army used drones to force the Russians on the defensive. This success is particularly noteworthy because the Russians actually have air sovereignty in Syria and this was also granted to them by the US military: CENTCOM had expressly allowed the Russians to operate undisturbed during the Syrian war. Russia has also found a mode of cooperation with Israel: Jerusalem has refrained from exporting drones to Ukraine and is instead allowed to fly air strikes in Syria with Russian tolerance. Turkey, on the other hand, had recently shown in the new conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh that one can win wars surprisingly quickly with drones – even against highly armed opponents.
That is why the Atlantic Council, which has long stood against Turkish President Erdogan and his regional ambitions, now recommends securing the diplomatic services of Ankara. Atlantic Council analysts wrote a blog post regarding Turkey’s role in the Ukraine conflict: “Whatever the Kremlin’s deliberations, the United States and NATO would be well advised, the resources of the alliance’s second largest military to use – especially the diplomatic wisdom that they have gained from overcoming centuries of conflicts and working with Russia. “
Russia shocked the Americans by shooting down a satellite in November: neither the USA nor NATO have this military capability, and the British and Americans were outraged after the surprise Russian coup. This Russian capability clearly limits the American possibilities of satellite-guided weapon systems. Moscow will not allow itself to be deprived of this trump card in the talks on Ukraine either. However, the development also shows that the dispute has long since reached the military level. Germany is currently not playing a role in the new poker and must hope to be informed about the next steps at least promptly by the transatlantic alliance partners.
The development shows that geopolitical forces are shifting and that regional powers can also play a role. This is also evident in Afghanistan, where Turkey, together with the United Arab Emirates (VAR) and Qatar, want to take over the operation of the airport. Where first the Soviets and then NATO gritted their teeth, now smaller players come into play – who also play a role in the very big power poker with China: The VAR have just rejected the US government’s request to get Huawei out of the country throw. In return, the Emirates, like Turkey, are willing to be excluded from the Americans’ F-35 program. They have no problem emancipating themselves because they have quietly established excellent business relations with Beijing for a long time. Joe Biden wants to prevent Russia from joining China in this way – which is why poker about Ukraine is about more than just straightening the regional political front.