photo caption, Ukrainian soldier (archive photo)
- Author, Matt Murphy, Paul Brown, Olga Robinson, Thomas Spencer and Alex Murray
- Author’s title, BBC verification
22 minutes
President Joe Biden’s decision to supply landmines to Ukraine, along with the authorization given to Kiev to use US long-range missiles on Russian territory, comes as Russia is accelerating its advance on the front.
This is demonstrated by data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia gained nearly six times more Ukrainian territory in 2024 than in 2023and is advancing towards major logistics hubs in the eastern Donbass region.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops repelled Kiev’s offensive. Experts now question the success of that offensive, with some calling it a “strategic catastrophe” given the military personnel shortages Ukraine faces.
Biden’s measures at the end of his mandate
Biden’s decision to allow the use of long-range missiles to attack inside Russian territory is interpreted as an attempt to stop Moscow’s advance and strengthen Ukraine’s position before Trump returns to the White House on January 20.
In addition, it just became known that the United States will supply Kiev with anti-personnel mines designed to explode when a person approaches.
According to a US government official, who requested anonymity, Ukraine has promised to use mines that will remain active for a limited period, known as “not persistent”.
This means they become inactive after a predetermined period, from four hours to two weeks.
Mines work with an electric fuse that requires the energy of a battery to explode. Once the battery runs out, they no longer explode.
The question is how much they will help reverse Russia’s gains.
photo caption, US to send “non-persistent” landmines to Ukraine.
Russia’s advance into eastern Ukraine
In the first months of the war, the front line moved rapidly, with Russian forces rapidly gaining ground before being pushed back by a Ukrainian counteroffensive. But by 2023 neither side had made significant progress and the conflict was largely stagnant.
But new ISW data indicates so 2024 was more favorable for Russia on the battlefield. The ISW bases its analysis on social media videos and reports of confirmed troop movements.
That information shows that Moscow’s forces have captured around 2,700 km2 of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared to just 465 km2 in all of 2023, nearly six times more.
Dr Marina Miron, a defense researcher at Kings College London, told the BBC that such a possibility exists Ukraine’s Eastern Front “will collapse” if Russia continued its advance at its current rate.
More than 1,000 km2 were captured between September 1 and November 3, suggesting that the offensive has accelerated in recent months. Two areas that have been hit hard by this progress are Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region, and Kurákhov, a stepping stone to the main logistics hub of Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region.
Kupiansk and areas east of the Oskil River were liberated during the 2022 Kharkiv offensive, but Russia has progressively reconquered the latter area. The UK Ministry of Defense stated this in a recent intelligence report Russian forces were trying to penetrate the north-eastern outskirts of the city.
The images published on November 13 and verified by the BBC coincide with this analysis. Video shows a Russian armored convoy pushed back after advancing 4km across the key Kupiansk Bridge, the last major road through the area.
While these reports do not necessarily translate into control of the area, they are indicative of what Ukraine’s defensive line is overloaded.
Elsewhere, since they recaptured the town of Vugledar in October, an elevated position overlooking major supply routes and which Moscow has fought for two years, Russia has poured its resources into Kurakhov.
Ukrainian forces defending the city have so far repelled attacks in the south and east. But the front is getting ever closer, with Russia threatening to encircle the defenders to the north and west.
This was stated by Colonel Yevgeny Sasyko, former head of strategic communications of the General Staff Russia places “mighty jaws” around the flanks of a city which slowly “grind” the defenses until they collapse.
Images of the city verified by the BBC show massive destruction, with residential buildings severely damaged.
photo caption, The destruction in Kupiansk was considerable.
The ISW concludes this Moscow has now captured 110,649 km2 of territory in Ukraine. By comparison, Ukrainian forces seized just over 1,171 km2 during the first month of their incursion into Kursk, although Russian forces have already recaptured nearly half of that territory.
Despite territorial gains, Russia’s advance came at an enormous cost.
An analysis by the BBC’s Russian service confirmed this At least 78,329 soldiers have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.recording more than 1.5 more victims in Moscow between September and November this year compared to the same period in 2023.
The losses are compounded by Russian commanders’ favorite tactic, known as the “meat grinder,” which describes waves of soldiers sent against Ukrainian positions to overwhelm the troops.
Despite Russian progress, some experts have indicated that the current offensive movement remains slow. David Handelman, a military analyst, suggested that Ukrainian troops in the east were slowly withdrawing to conserve troops and resources, rather than suffer a broader collapse.
The risky move in Kursk
Ukraine launched a surprise raid in Russia’s Kursk region in August. It is unclear why it took Russia so long to respond to the operation in which Kiev’s troops quickly took control of several border communities.
Dr. Miron believes that, although the Kremlin may have paid an internal political cost for the duration of the incursion, the Russian General Staff was interested in keeping Ukrainian forces busy in Kursk while their forces made further gains on other fronts.
But now Moscow is clearly determined to regain lost territory on its own territory. Around 50,000 soldiers have been deployed in the region.
Verified videos from the Kursk region show heavy fighting there and that Russia is suffering significant losses in terms of personnel and equipment. But the data clearly shows it Ukraine’s control over the region is shrinking.
Since the beginning of October, Russian counterattacks have recaptured around 593 km2 of territory in the border region, according to ISW data.
Initially, the raid on Kursk served to maintain Ukraine’s morale in a period of serious setbacksand the audacity of the operation was a warning of his ability to surprise and punish his enemy.
But Dr Miron believes that while the raid on Kursk was a moment of “tactical genius”, it also proved to be a “strategic catastrophe” for Ukraine.
“The idea was maybe to get some political leverage for a potential negotiation, even though militarily they wanted to remove Russian forces from Donbass so they could go and liberate Kursk. And what we see instead is that Ukrainian units are stuck there.”
Some of Kiev’s most experienced and effective units are known to fight in Kursk. Mechanized units equipped with on-board armor supplied by the West also participate in the offensive.
Some of the most experienced Ukrainian units operate in Kursk, with cutting-edge armor supplied by the West.
Ukrainian leaders had expressed hope that the raid would happen force Moscow to redirect some of its forces into eastern Ukraineslowing the Russian advance there. Experts believe that most of the reinforcements were moved to Kursk from regions of Ukraine where the fighting was not as intense.
“According to Ukrainian soldiers at several points on the front, Russian reinforcement troops in Kursk were brought mainly from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,” Yurri Clavilier, a territorial analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC.
“The fighting there is not as intense as in the east. Some Russian units attacking Kharkiv were also diverted to Kursk while Ukraine managed to stop the Russian assault there,” he added.
The importance of territory to both parties is the strengthening it offers to their position in the event of a potential negotiation. Although peace negotiations have not come to fruition, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he could end the war within 24 hours, but has not made clear exactly how.
Fears still persist that Trump might cut his country’s military assistance to force Kiev to the negotiating table. President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News in the US on Tuesday that he believes they will lose the war if the cuts are approved.
“We have our production, but it is not enough to prevail and I think it will not be enough to survive,” he said.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News that his country “will not be able to survive” without U.S. military assistance.
On Tuesday, Ukraine fired US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory for the first timethe day after Washington gave authorization. This decision is believed to have been made in part to help Ukraine maintain control of an area of the Kursk region, which could serve as a useful currency in future negotiations.
Dr Miron told the BBC that Russia’s advance had helped her a stronger negotiating position as Trump’s new foreign affairs team prepares to take office.
“What they have under control right now gives them a certain advantage,” commented the expert. “If there are negotiations, I am sure that, as the Russian side said, they will do so ‘according to the configuration of the battlefield.’”
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What are the strategic implications of Ukraine’s surprise raid in the Kursk region for its military objectives?
The article discusses the recent military operations in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine launched a surprise raid in August. While initially seizing control of several border communities, the situation has shifted dramatically with Russian forces now launching counterattacks to regain territory.
Key points include:
- Initial Success and Consequences: Ukraine’s raid was meant to boost morale amidst setbacks and demonstrate their capability to surprise Russia. However, experts, including Dr. Miron, have characterized this move as a tactical success yet a “strategic catastrophe” for Ukraine, as it has become tied down in heavy fighting there.
- Russian Response: The Russian military has reportedly committed around 50,000 soldiers to the Kursk area and has begun significant counteroffensives, regaining territory previously lost to Ukrainian forces. Verified reports indicate heavy fighting and considerable Russian losses in the engagement.
- Reinforcements and Strategy: Russia has redirected forces from relatively calmer fronts, such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, to bolster their efforts in Kursk. Analysts suggest that this shift in resources demonstrates the strategic importance of the region for both sides, particularly in terms of leverage for any potential negotiations.
- Implications for Ukrainian Forces: Many experienced Ukrainian units, equipped with Western-supplied armor, are engaged in the fighting. The initial hope was that the raid would force Russia to divert its focus, but instead, Ukrainian forces find themselves heavily engaged and potentially overstretched, undermining their military objectives in Donbass and elsewhere.
- Political Ramifications: The article touches on the broader context of international support for Ukraine, especially with concerns about future U.S. military assistance under President-elect Donald Trump. Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed worries that cuts in military aid could jeopardize their defense efforts.
the situation in Kursk highlights the complexities of modern warfare, where tactical victories can lead to broader strategic challenges, all while the geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve.