Russia wants to describe the war in Ukraine from February 2022 as a ‘special military mission’. Russia is not waging war, it is engaging in a ‘mission’! Ten months have passed since the Russia-Ukraine war started on February 24, 2022. Russia’s ‘mission’ is far from over. We witnessed the sight of a superpower like Russia with over 10 lakh troops bowing to Ukraine with a population of 44 million. Ukraine’s valiant resistance to Russian military advances is supported by the United States and the NATO military alliance. The army had to withdraw from many cities that Russia captured from Ukraine. But Russia’s goal will be to win against Ukraine.
Despite the support of the NATO alliance, Ukraine’s progress is making the world happy. The hope that we can take from 2022 to 2023 is that the old USSR and the old colonial occupiers in NATO may have realized that the days of invasion where anyone could invade with military force against small countries are over.
Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zilansky’s meeting with US President Joe Biden has angered Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that he is ready to resolve the issue with Ukraine after Joe Biden assured him that the United States will continue to support Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Minister warned Ukraine that if Kyiv does not accept Moscow’s demands, it will face defeat on the battlefield. Since then, Russian forces have shelled and bombed cities and towns in southern Ukraine.
What is the future of the Ukraine-Russia war?
It is impossible to make a definite answer about the future of the Ukraine-Russia war. Russia is likely to intensify its offensive during the spring season. Winter is favorable for Ukraine. This can be understood if we take a look at the graph of the Russia-Ukraine war. During the spring season, Ukraine was not able to defend against the attack from the Russian side. It was during this period that Russia captured all the major cities of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the extreme cold in Ukraine has seen the Russian army paralyze. That is why the Russian army left all the captured cities and retreated.
Vladimir Putin’s Russian army is preparing for a strong advance in the spring season. Michael Clarke, associate director of the Strategic Studies Institute, Exeter, UK, says that the spring season will be decisive in the Russian-Ukraine war. The Ukrainian army is moving forward, not ready to give up. Many areas captured by the Russian army have now returned to Ukraine. Russia’s shelling of southern Ukraine has only intensified the war between the two countries.
Will Russia rebuild the bridge to Crimea in 2023?
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Crimea was annexed with the aim of annexing eastern Ukraine to Russia. Vladimir Putin has been secretly cultivating rebels of Russian descent in Donbos, part of eastern Ukraine. Russian-born rebels in Donbos, part of eastern Ukraine, who worked in the Wagner Group, Putin’s private military security group, in its early days. The US accuses the group of being involved in Russia’s attacks against Ukraine.
Russia opened the bridge connecting Russia and Crimea in 2018. The 19-km-long bridge was destroyed by a bomb blast in Ukraine on October 8, 2022. But the partial restoration of the bridge has boosted confidence in Putin’s Russia. The rebuilding of the bridge to Crimea is crucial to Russia’s planned offensive in the spring. 50,000 newly mobilized soldiers are at the forefront of the Russian army. Russia is giving intensive training to 25000 soldiers for next year. Russia’s goal is to defend Ukraine until new Russian forces arrive on the battlefield. The other way is to have a short and unstable ceasefire. But Putin has already said that Russia is not ready for that.
Will Ukraine win this war?
Andrei Piontkovsky, a scientist and observer based in Washington, DC, says that Ukraine will be able to effectively stop the Russian advance in the spring of 2023. He considers that Ukraine has made the most daring advance in the history of war. He considers this advance as a sign of the determination and courage of the Ukrainian people as a whole.
In this war, the NATO military alliance can bring victory to Ukraine through military assistance. If the war drags on, there are possibilities. NATO also wants to change the course of the war with the help of tankers, aircraft and long-range missiles.
Winter will be very difficult for Russia. It was during this winter that Ukraine built a strong defense. The world is anxiously waiting to see if the Russia-Ukraine war will last until next winter. Russia, which has said the problem can be resolved through diplomatic talks, has been shelling southern Ukraine. A discussion at this point is considered a closed chapter.
Costs of war
Although the war is between the two countries, Russia has the support of the European Union, the NATO military alliance and the United States. But the progress of the war will depend on how long it will take. Success will only come if the West remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine in the face of domestic pressures over the cost of the war. But the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to drag on for a long time.
Ukraine has no choice but to defeat Russia
Ukraine has no choice but to defeat Russia in the Ukraine-Russia war. Russia does not seem ready for strategic talks. Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of United States Army Europe, says the war is likely to drag on because Russia is unlikely to bow to the tiny nation of Ukraine. He says it is imperative that Ukraine wins the war.
War slows down in winter. He says that with winter equipment from the UK, Canada and Germany, the Ukrainian army can operate better than the Russian army on the battlefield. He added that the Ukrainian army will be able to liberate Crimea by January.
Can we expect peace talks to begin?
There is little chance of peace talks. It is believed that the Ukrainian army will be able to seize Crimea by January. This blow to the Russian advance will never lead them to a peace negotiation. But any agreement that forces Russia to end its naval presence in Sevastopol could move toward an agreement. Such agreements are said to have existed before Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.
Ukraine has already begun infrastructure reconstruction efforts along the Sea of Azov. These include the major ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. Another noteworthy project is the reopening of the North Crimean Canal, which diverts water from the Dnipro to Crimea.
Russia aims to disrupt Ukraine’s infrastructure and energy sector. Russia is trying to completely encircle the country. The annexation of Crimea and the shelling of southern Ukraine are part of it. Another crisis facing Ukraine is the military it needs. Soldiers need to be deployed along with weapons to the battlefield. The big question is how long Ukraine will be able to do that. Failing that, Ukraine has no choice but to surrender.