Can’t see the end: A year ago it happened. On the night of February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation”, and Russia invaded Ukraine. Despite the extensive deployment of Russian military forces near the borders in the days leading up to the announcement, only a few believed that such a war could indeed break out. However, in the end, Putin managed to surprise many, and the biggest war on European soil since World War II started.
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It seems that in a way, the world has not been the same since that night. Although the immediate defeat of Ukraine that many predicted did not materialize, at least for now. But millions of Ukrainians have tried for their lives since the outbreak of the war, and even those who remained in the country have not returned to their former lives, and are in their eyes a continuous nightmare.
A mass grave that the Russians left behind in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)
I spoke with Nino Absedza, a former Knesset member and commentator on Russian affairs, and returned with her to the factors that led Putin to take the extreme step. As part of our conversation, she referred, among other things, to the possible effect of Biden’s rise to power on the decision, and explained what the biggest obstacle is on the way to ending the fighting, and the suffering of millions of Ukrainians.
The feeling is that the thing that most of all led to the outbreak of the war, is that Putin has not come to terms with the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, and that he feels that Russia’s national honor has been damaged.
“It is true that Putin called a few years ago for the dissolution of the former Soviet Union – ‘the great tragedy of humanity in the 20th century’, with the exception of World War II. But his intention was not for the dissolution itself, but for what happened afterwards, when millions of people, according to him, found themselves In an unclear situation. For him, the world order that Russia was used to for hundreds of years, especially after World War II, has changed.”
In 1955, the Eastern European countries founded the Warsaw Pact, headed by the Soviet Union, as a response to the establishment of the NATO alliance after World War II. The alliance, which was a significant pillar of the Cold War, was disbanded in 1991.
Absedza points out the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact in the face of the expansion of NATO, as the central point for this view of Putin: “Despite the promises given to the Russians, according to which after they close the Warsaw Pact, the West will not advance one more meter in the direction of Russia, after the dissolution of more and more countries Joined the NATO alliance, which left Ukraine, unfortunately, as the last dividing line between Russia and the West.”
“For the Russians, this means that the last fence separating them from the West has fallen”
“From the Kremlin’s point of view, the entire security belt between Russia and the West has disappeared. What actually happened is that after the beginning of the 1990s there were only 16 countries in NATO, today there are 30, and two more countries (Sweden and Finland) are expected to join the alliance soon ), twice what was promised to the Russians, that’s how they see it,” Absedza says.
Although Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, for the Russians it is the last fence separating them from the West. As soon as they heard that Ukraine was also asking to join NATO, the meaning for them was the dismantling of this fence. Putin, for his part, is not ready to see NATO missiles zero kilometers away from Russia,” she adds.
Destruction in Svorodonsk, Ukraine (Photo: REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko)Even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we saw that the Western countries did not dare to confront Russia directly. Therefore, the question arises, is the concern presented by Putin on this issue real, or does it come in order to serve certain interests of his?
“We can’t know, it’s theoretical. The main argument of the Russians on this issue is why what the US was allowed to demand in the 1960s, they are not allowed today” (after long negotiations held during the 1960s, she finally agreed in the USSR to the USA’s demand to remove the ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, which it had stationed in Cuba).
She also explained: “During the years of the existence of the USSR, Russia got used to the fact that there are two main centers of power in the world, they and the USA. They called the situation created after the breakup of the Soviet Union ‘an abnormal, sick and unhealthy situation’. They felt that although they Those who defeated the Nazis, but suddenly no one counted Russia anymore. From Putin’s point of view, he succeeded in restoring to Russia the status of a superpower, and as such it needs to protect its interests.”
Donald Trump (Photo: Reuters)“Putin saw the Democrats as those trying to educate Russia”
One of the events that gave impetus to Putin and the way he sees the power relations between the powers was the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. The Soviet one,” Absedza explains. She also noted that with the rise of the current American President Joe Biden, representative of the Democratic Party in the country, “the Russians’ view of the situation changed dramatically.”
Absedza commented on the way in which the Russian president sees things: “Putin, for his part, sees the Democrats in the US as those who try to teach the Russians ‘what they should be when they grow up’, to try to educate them. He basically said: ‘It won’t work like that, you’re not going to change or manage us.’ Even before Biden even acted on the Russian issue, Putin, for him, was ready that this is what the Democrats will try to do when they are in power.”
Biden called for the release of the Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, the Americans said it loudly and without any doubt. The Russians, for their part, responded: ‘Sorry Mr. Biden, you are the boss of your country, not ours.’ This is the feeling that existed in the Kremlin when Biden’s term began. From the beginning, it was possible to smell the conflict, and Putin, in my opinion, tried to anticipate a cure for the blow on this issue,” she added.
US President Joe Biden (Photo: REUTERS/Tom Brenner)She further stated: “As mentioned, in his view, based on his familiarity with the Democrats, and the knowledge that with them he will ‘live less in peace,’ Putin tried to anticipate a cure for the blow. From the beginning, he set conditions for the Americans – ‘Now you will say that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO, and you will remove some of the weapons from countries Eastern Europe that are members of NATO.
The Americans did not respond to this ultimatum. For their part, they said: ‘It’s not us who decides, but Ukraine, NATO’s door is open to everyone.’ .
Ukrainian military forces (Photo: Reuters)She asserted: “I am sure that Putin planned this military exercise, hoping that those who did not understand through the mind, will now understand through force. He planned that there would be no need to go to war, after they came towards the conditions he set. As mentioned, after this did not happen, he ordered For the entry into Ukraine, which he still calls a ‘special military operation’. We see three tragedies here: the war, which is a tragedy in itself, the war becoming routine and its end not in sight.”
The war in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)“Russia is fighting on the territory of Ukraine against the West”
When I asked Absedza about the possible factors that could lead to the end of the war, which is currently not visible, she emphasized its essence: “This is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and the collective West, between Russia and NATO. For the war to end, the parties need to negotiate. One side in possible negotiations is Russia, regarding the other side there is a problem.
“Because even if the Ukrainians wanted to sit down tomorrow, the Russians would not sit down with them. From their point of view, they are not fighting in Ukraine, but on the territory of Ukraine against the collective West. In Moscow, they see the White House and not Kiev as the decision-makers,” she emphasized.
Ukrainian military forces with Zelensky (Photo: Reuters)Absedza went on to describe the Russians’ desire: “They want the West, or maybe even the United States itself, to come, talk to them and give them a promise that Ukraine will not be part of NATO. In my opinion, the Russians will not talk to the Ukrainians, and this is the reason why we cannot really find a light at the end of the tunnel, which will ensure that this catastrophe in Europe will end soon.”
At the same time, Absedza claims that neither the West nor Ukraine are currently interested in talking to the Russians: “The tragedy is that this war is being fought on the territory of Ukraine. This means that in one way or another, Russia is waiting for the West to talk to it. The West currently has no reason to talk to the Russians , they haven’t won yet. So why?”.
She explained: “Ukraine is full of motivation, their defense minister said that 2023 will be ‘the year of David’s victory over Goliath.’ battle, which will be provided to them soon.”
The damage of the Russian attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine (Photo: REUTERS/Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy)The mediator issue and the Israeli context
History shows that wars usually end through mediators, here you don’t really see who can serve in this role.
“We have one who is trying very hard, and that is Erdogan. I wouldn’t call him a mediator at this stage. He simply conveys messages, usually through the media. You can’t call it serious mediation. Theoretically, Israel might, and I know this makes many people smile, was Such an option.
On the one hand, in the eyes of the whole world, we are fortunately considered part of the Western world, and we have ‘Western legitimacy’. On the other hand, from Putin’s point of view, Israel was almost the only country in the West that did not try to educate and teach Russia ‘what it should be when it grows up,'” she emphasized.
She also said: “The West criticized, and rightly so, the poisoning attempts of the Russian opposition, as well as the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. On the other hand, we were the only ones who did not do so. We did not support it, but we did not criticize it either. The Russians They noticed it, and called it ‘dialogue at eye level’.
We walked a lot between the drops, because of our interests. The Americans are not dominantly in the Middle East, and the Russian Air Force is here. Before the war, it was much easier for Israel to go through the cracks on the Russian issue, it made sense for her.”
Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: Reuters)She pointed out the problematic situation in which Israel finds itself: “With the beginning of the war, Israel cannot but position itself in the ‘good part of the map’, on the one hand. On the other hand, it will still change the problematic of the Middle East where we are, with Iran, Hezbollah and the various other factors In our environment, until now there was the same dialogue at eye level, things are changing and continue to change, we don’t know where it will end.
Although we are small compared to Russia and the USA, the whole world knows that Jerusalem can pick up the phone to both the White House and the Kremlin, and they will have a dialogue with them, at least that’s how it used to be.”
Recently, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Kiev, met with Zelensky and even criticized the Russians. For him, this occurrence could have a negative effect on Russia’s actions here in the Middle East?
“In the end, they will test us from their point of view, according to our actions. From the point of view of Russia, the main question is who is transferring arms to the Ukrainians, and who is not. At the moment it seems that Israel is not ready for such a transfer of arms, as other countries are doing.”