The Russian Push in Eastern Ukraine: What the Latest Declassified Intelligence Assessment Reveals
In a recent declassified American intelligence assessment, it has been revealed that the Russian push in eastern Ukraine this fall and winter was a strategic move aimed at sapping Western support for Ukraine. However, despite heavy losses, the drive has not produced strategic gains on the battlefield for Russia, according to Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.
The newly declassified assessment also highlights the staggering number of losses suffered by the Russian army since the beginning of the war. Starting with 360,000 troops, Russia has lost 315,000, leading them to recruit and mobilize new recruits and convicts from their prison system. Furthermore, the assessment reports that Russia’s equipment has been significantly diminished, with the loss of 2,200 tanks out of an initial 3,500, compelling them to resort to using 50 year old T-62 tanks from storage.
According to the assessment, these losses have greatly reduced the complexity of Russia’s recent military operations in Ukraine. “The war in Ukraine has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force,” the declassified assessment said. “As of late November, Russia had lost over a quarter of its pre-2022 stockpile of ground forces equipment and has suffered casualties among its trained professional army.”
In the most recent push, Russia has incurred more than 13,000 casualties and lost more than 220 combat vehicles while fighting near Avdiivka and other cities. Despite hoping for a swift breakthrough, Russian forces encountered stiff Ukrainian resistance and have now suffered significant losses.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine visits Washington to appeal for more American aid to help defend against the continued assault, the White House is asking for $50 billion in additional security aid for Ukraine. However, funding debates in Congress have sparked skepticism among conservative Republicans regarding Ukraine’s ability to win the war, with some calling for major changes in U.S. border security policy as part of a funding agreement.
According to Ms. Watson, the push by Russia is directly related to the ongoing funding debates in Congress. The declassified intelligence assessment suggests that Russia “seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine.”
Despite shortages of soldiers and weaponry, Russia continues to push in Eastern Ukraine, hoping to gain an advantage despite its losses. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia reportedly believes that his strategy of trying to outwait the West is beginning to yield success.
Overall, the declassified intelligence assessment provides valuable insight into the current state of the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the strategic maneuvers being employed by Russia. As the situation continues to unfold, the international community will be closely watching for further developments.