This is according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), The New Voice writes.
August 27 published geolocation footage confirms that Russian troops have advanced more than 2 km from their last confirmed position to the northwestern part of Novohrodivka (a town southeast of Pokrovsk) along Dubinina Street.
This shows that the occupiers have positions in the central part of the city as well.
ISW experts note that a Ukrainian soldier reported in a now-deleted Telegram message that Ukrainian armed forces had allegedly withdrawn from Novokhrodivka.
Russian state media and several Russian “warlords” picked up on his report and used it to claim that Russian troops were in control of most of the settlement.
August 27 published additional geographic video material showed that Russian forces also slightly advanced to the southeastern part of the Hrodivka settlement (east of Pokrovsk and northeast of Novohrodivka) and captured Kalynov (southeast of Pokrovsk and southeast of Novohrodivka).
Russian “warlords” also claimed that Ukrainian forces had “lost” Marynevka (just south of Novohrodivka) and that the occupiers had captured the village of Memrik (southeast of Novohrodivka), although ISW has yet to see any visual evidence of Russian presence in these settlements.
Some Russian sources also said that Russian troops have allegedly entered the southern part of Mykhailovka and are attacking the northeastern part of Selydovka (a settlement near Novokhrodivka).
According to ISW experts, Russian forces overcame most of the territory of Novohrodivka in a few days, and the progress of Russian forces in the Pokrovsk sector in recent years has been quite rapid. They assume that the occupiers prefer to advance along the railway line in Novohrodivka towards Pokrovsk, rather than fight in the entire urban area of the settlement.
According to ISW, such a relatively rapid advance of the Russians in Novohrodivka during the last 24 hours could partly be due to the possible retreat of Ukrainian troops from Novohrodivka. However, the Ukrainian side has not officially confirmed the withdrawal.
ISW previously estimated that it would take more time for Russian forces to capture Novohrodivka. However, they now admit that this assessment “turned out to be incorrect and was based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces would maintain positional defense in the urbanized areas of Novohrodivka, which is currently not the case,” the analysts write.
They remind us that urbanization alone is not an obstacle in itself to the advance of the army without sufficient defense forces.
According to ISW, the Ukrainian leadership probably decided that the defense of Novohrodivka was not worth the possible losses. Novohrodivka itself is not an operationally important city, but its capture would theoretically open the way for the Russians to Pokrovsk, experts say.
It is Pokrovsk that is Russia’s operational objective in this section of the front.
However, Pokrovsk is also larger, better fortified, and ultimately more important than Novohrodivka, as it is the main logistics center in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.
Therefore, it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Pokrovsk without defending the city.
ISW expects the Russians to spend a significant amount of manpower and equipment to capture the more defensible Pokrovsk, especially if the Ukrainian military leadership decides to reinforce the area.
At that point, ISW predicts that the advancing Russian forces are unlikely to be able to maintain their current marching pace indefinitely, especially if they start storming Pokrovsk itself.
It is believed that the Russian offensive effort around Pokrovsk will eventually reach a climax (the point of exhaustion of offensive capabilities – ed.), although the timing of this climax remains unclear.
ISW experts emphasize that they are not ready to predict an inevitable climax in the Pokrovsk sector – especially given that Russian troops are currently increasing the pace of their movements in the area, and Ukrainian troops are retreating to prepared defensive positions west of Gardivka, which should generally be more favorable for defense .
However, ISW expects that 30 thousand The redeployment of Russian troops to the Kursk region, announced by Oleksandr Syrsky, could ultimately undermine Russia’s battlefield capabilities in Ukraine after the Pokrovsk offensive.
Currently, the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk is supported by the most capable Russian forces, and the Russian offensive operations in this direction are symbolic of the wider Russian “theory of victory” in Ukraine, which is based on a slow and tedious tactical march.
O. Syrskis said that after reports appeared about more than 30 thousand the transfer of troops from other parts of the Ukrainian front to the Kursk region, Russia is simultaneously intensifying its actions in the Pokrovsk sector, ISW noted.
Syrskyi’s comments are consistent with ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Russian military leadership continues to prioritize an offensive in Pokrovsk over the expulsion of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
ISW has previously noted that it has seen no evidence that Russia has moved units near Pokrovsk to the Kursk region.
However, there was evidence that Russia had deployed reserve units and units from non-critical front areas to the Kursk region.
O. Syrski’s statements show that the Russian military command still does not want to redeploy the military units currently fighting near Pokrovsk.
It is also clear that Russia is following leader Vladimir Putin’s “theory of victory,” which calls for the initiative to be held by Russian troops engaged in a sustained, exhausting war to “outwit” Ukraine and its partners.
Parengta pagal „The New Voice“ inf.
2024-08-30 08:25:30