Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
Modern armies are seeing the war in Ukraine as a testing ground for advanced weapons. Chinese defense magazines over the past year have reported with great interest on Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missile, analyzing its performance against US-supplied Patriot systems and in the war in general.
According to observers, the appearance of Kinzhal in Ukraine is Beijing’s first opportunity to observe how such sophisticated weapons perform in the fight against Western equipment.
China hopes the Dongfeng hypersonic missile will change the game in its ability to take down US aircraft carriers. But Kinzhal, touted by the Kremlin as an “unstoppable” hypersonic weapon, is being reported in the West as having been stopped by the Patriot system or simply missed its target.
“There is more and more evidence that what the US and Ukraine say on this issue is correct,” Chinese defense analyst Yin Jie wrote in November in the Shaanxi military magazine.
However, Yin Jie gave a surprisingly critical assessment of Russia’s use of the Kinzhal, or “Dagger”, writing that the missile was “unlikely to have a significant impact” on combat. school.
That directly contradicts how Russia has portrayed this weapon as a key weapon for victory.
A ‘short-term, hasty project’
The Chinese analyst cited various ways Russia has weakened its missiles, such as how the Kinzhal was fired and its availability. They concluded that Kinzhal was not the star Moscow was aiming for.
Yin describes the Kinzhal as an improved version of Russia’s ground-launched Iskander missile that was quickly completed in a “short-term, hastily forced deployment project” as Western adversaries applied pressure. to Moscow in the years before the war.
“This missile, developed based on the technical framework of the 1980s, may not have amazing battlefield performance,” the analyst added.
The Kinzhal’s maneuverability “cannot be compared to that of a true hypersonic missile,” they wrote, adding that its ballistic trajectory also makes the Kinzhal vulnerable to defense systems such as the Patriot attack.
A similar view can be found in “The Confrontation Between Dagger and Patriot in Ukraine”, an analysis published by Beijing’s famous science and defense magazine Military Arms.
This independent analysis said Kinzhal is “only a ‘marginal hypersonic missile'”. The analysis further noted that, although Russia calls ‘Dagger’ a hypersonic missile, analysts from other countries generally believe that the so-called ‘Dagger’ hypersonic missile is actually a launch version. from the air of the ‘Iskander’ short-range tactical ballistic missile”.
That assessment is consistent with what Western experts have said about Kinzhal – that it is not a “true” hypersonic missile in that it can reach supersonic speeds but cannot glide and maneuver effectively. results at such speed. “The ‘Dagger’ missile has too much ambition but not enough power,” the July analysis said.
‘Accuracy is not satisfactory’
In his November analysis, expert Yin not only pointed out Kinzhal’s lack of sophistication but also pointed out the circumstances within the entire Russian military apparatus. Yin noted that Russia has stopped launching Kinzhal from its Mig-31, instead opting to use Su-34 jets that fire safely from outside the range of Ukraine’s defenses.
But the analyst wrote that the Su-34 proved too slow to fire the Kinzhal at optimal speed. Expert Yin Jie assessed that, already slower than the Mig-31, the Su-34 was even more weighed down by the heavy Kinzhal.
For Kinzhal to operate most effectively, the launch aircraft must travel at high speeds and altitudes to give the missile adequate range.
“Therefore, after the aircraft was equipped with the KH-47M2 ‘Dagger’, it was impossible to place excessive and unrealistic expectations on its initial capabilities,” the author wrote.
They also criticized Russia’s satellite system for guiding missiles, saying that the country does not have enough satellites to ensure accuracy. “Accuracy is unsatisfactory,” the analyst wrote.
Yin Jie then raised the issue of Russia simply not having enough Kinzhal, saying that Western sanctions have hindered Moscow’s ability to quickly produce weapons, which limits how the name can be used. fire.
Yin Jie’s analysis further points out: “Kinzhal is not produced and equipped in large quantities. After a year and a half of use in the Ukrainian battlefield, Moscow may now have very little left in stock. It only has can be used to attack strategic locations”.
This mirrors December findings by the Institute for the Study of War, which cited Ukrainian intelligence as saying that Russia produced only four Kinzhals in a month.
Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia in Washington, DC, research organization Defense Priorities, told Business Insider: “I think the clear lesson for China here is that they need to have a larger arsenal than what what they consider to be military requirements”.
He and RAND policy analyst Nathan Waechter documented China’s research on weapons in the Ukraine war through a series of articles published in The Diplomat. Their work includes analyzing Yin Jie’s criticism of Kinzhal.
China closely monitors the Ukraine war
Goldstein said he and Waechter have followed dozens of Chinese articles analyzing the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, which shows that Beijing is very interested in the operation of this super weapon. “It adds to the evidence that China is watching this war extremely carefully,” he said.
Goldstein said that in recent months, Russia has stepped up its attacks using Kinzhal and Western observers will have to wait and see what Chinese experts think about these. But Goldstein said that if Chinese media mentioned any obstacles that Moscow encountered with Western weapons, Beijing’s military was probably also scrutinizing them, given the close relationship and beyond. China’s dominance over Russia.
What is printed in Chinese defense magazines, he added, only hints at the true scope of Beijing’s analysis and the lessons it can draw for a potential war with the United States.
“I always think we’re just looking at the tip of the iceberg,” Goldstein said.