Russia Targets Ukraine’s Grain Export Routes Along the Danube River
In a move that further escalates the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has begun targeting Ukraine’s key alternative export routes along the Danube River. This comes after the Kremlin’s refusal to renew the deal that allowed ships to transport grain across the Black Sea.
With Ukraine’s Black Sea ports effectively blockaded by Russia, the country has had to heavily rely on its ports along the Danube river to export grain into neighboring Romania. From there, the grain can be transported further afield, as Romania’s ports remain open. However, Russia has now turned its missiles and drones on these ports, causing extensive damage.
According to Lloyd’s List, a company that tracks global shipping markets, there were 19 drone attacks on Danube ports on the night of July 24, targeting Ukraine’s main alternative export routes. The port of Reni was hit particularly hard, with strikes causing damage to several silos, hangars, and other buildings. The Zatoka bridge, a crucial link allowing grain trucks into the port of Izmail on the Danube, was also reportedly hit.
The impact of these attacks on grain exports has been significant. Mariia Bogonos, an agriculture policy expert at the Kyiv School of Economics, states that without the grain deal, Ukrainian grain exports will stumble at maximum export capacity, reaching only about 2.5 million tonnes per month. The majority of this would travel via the Danube river.
Prior to the war, Odesa was the biggest grain exporter, but due to slow operations in the city, the Danube has become the main route, says Andrey Sizov, an expert on the Black Sea agricultural markets. Despite the recent attacks, all Danube ports appear to have swiftly returned to normal operations, and trade along the river route has not been significantly affected, according to Lloyds List.
However, any further disruptions have implications for the rest of Europe and the world. Global wheat prices have already increased by more than 10% since the collapse of the grain deal enabling shipments to safely leave Black Sea ports. Dozens of commercial ships are currently waiting at the mouth of the Danube, exacerbating congestion that has been present since the start of the war.
Tensions in the shipping industry have also risen, as both Moscow and Kyiv have threatened to treat some commercial vessels as military targets. While it is unlikely that either side will attack commercial ships, the threat alone has deterred many boats from returning to the region and has led to higher insurance premiums for those that do.
The increased risk at Danube ports has left traders reassessing the viability of the remaining Ukraine grain export routes, according to Lloyd’s List. There are land routes that could be used for transportation, but experts warn that these would be slower and more expensive. Furthermore, there are concerns that Russia may target the rail infrastructure next in its efforts to halt grain exports out of Ukraine.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to unfold, the global trade of grain remains at risk, with potential implications for wheat prices and the stability of the agricultural market.