A thorough review of the guidance it could turn into a heavy signal of distrust on the part of the market
In one day positive for the Italian stock exchange (follow the price lists here), which celebrates the confirmation of Mattarella at the Quirinale, Saipem shoulder bag and it loses – as we write – just under 30%. Because? Because yes expects a loss of more than one third of the principal. In short, a disaster. So much so that the company was forced to withdraw theoutlook presented at the end of October.
The analysts stock exchanges agree to report a situation from great criticality. Per Bestinver (which takes for granted the need for a capital increase) it is a real “cold shower, since Saipem had presented the 2021-2025 plan at the end of October, excluding the risks of a recapitalization and confirming a positive Ebitda in the second half of 2021 and indicating very ambitious growth targets for the years to come “.
The problem of the company led by Francesco Caio is that the difficulties started five years ago. In 2016in fact, a € 3.5 billion capital increase was requested. But since 2017 al 2020 there had been losses of over 1.9 billion, plus another two billion for the year just ended.
So much so that always Bestinver goes so far as to argue that such a thorough revision of the guidance, three months after the data was presented to analysts, it could turn into a heavy signal of mistrust on the part of the market. Moreover, Francesco Caio Yes, he has been CEO for a few months, but he has been president of the company since 2018, so it cannot even be argued that he has found a totally unknown situation.
Even second Equita, the news “clearly has negative implications for the title. On a very preliminary basis, assuming a capital strengthening from 1 billion the report net financial position / Ebitda would drop in 2023 to 1.6-1.1 times from 2.9-2.3 times but there are various factors that can influence the amount “.
Saipem itself, in a note issued this morning, expressly refers to article 2446 of the Civil Code, which governs the need to reduce capital if the losses exceed one third of the capital itself. Also in the note, among other things, we read that they have already been preliminary contracts started with banking counterparties “In order to treat in advance the potential effects on loan agreements resulting from the occurrence of the case referred to in art. 2446 of the civil code “.
I Saipem’s main shareholders are Eni, which has a share of 30,54% of the share capital e Cdp with 12.55. They both stand monitoring the situation because, in the event of a capital increase, they would be required to respond pro rata.
It is not exactly one news that Saipem is in crisis. On July 30, at the presentation of the quarterly data, the CFO Antonio Paccioretti had officially denied the need for a capital increase after several analysts had speculated that it might be necessary. Some creaking had already been felt on Friday afternoon, when a sell-off fueled by strong trading volumes, with a transit on the market of over 15.5 million shares, already well above the average of about 9.7 million in the last 30 days.
Thursday 27, moreover, Bank of America he had shown more than one perplexity about the company, restarting the hedge on the stock with an “underperform” recommendation, with a target price of 1.2 euros, ie a 38% downside compared to last Friday’s prices. Currently the shares of Saipem 1.37 euros per share are exchanged.
A get worse further the painting, there is also the confirmation from analysts that not even the further rise in the price of oil – went from 84 dollars a barrel on January 24 to over 91 today – will be able to help Saipem quickly regain the stability it needs. Because, as also stated in the company’s note, “the forecast of an increase in whole-life costs illustrated above involves a decreased marginality of the projects which, due to the application of international accounting standards, is also reflected in a reduction in revenues” .