Losses in income of smartphone manufacturers Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi and Realme in the event of sanctions against Russia and a ban on direct deliveries will amount to 760 billion rubles. (about $10 billion) per year. Half of the losses will fall on Apple, Kommersant reported, citing a report from the GS Group analytical center.
On January 8, the New York Times reported that in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, the US Department of Commerce could prohibit the export to Russia of any consumer goods with US-made parts.
In 2021, 35.2 million smartphones worth 832 billion rubles were imported into the country. Spending by Russian residents on phones has grown by 32% year-on-year due to the rising cost of new models. According to analysts, in 2022 the import of smartphones to Russia may be reduced to 34.9 million units due to the fall in the purchasing power of the population.
Alexander Surkov, head of the GS Group analytical center, noted that against the backdrop of sanctions, the share of key manufacturers in the market will fall from more than 80% to 10-20%, and device prices will increase by 15-20%. He also predicted an increase in parallel imports of original models from neighboring countries by unauthorized intermediaries, imports of smartphones from Chinese and Russian brands, primarily private labels of retailers and telecom operators.
Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi did not respond to the publication’s requests, M.Video-Eldorado, Vimpelcom, Marvel Distribution and MTS declined to comment. Mikhail Dogadin, Vice President for Procurement and Development at Svyaznoy, noted that smartphones from the United States are popular among Russians, so a ban on their import would greatly affect the market. He agreed with the opinion that due to sanctions, the turnover of gray and used devices, as well as Chinese smartphones, will increase.
A source close to a major retailer believes that US sanctions will not directly affect brands from other countries. Smartphones are supplied to Russia mainly by Chinese manufacturers, and if the American brand leaves, a Korean one will take its place. Surkov added that it is impossible to ban the supply of components for assembling smartphones in China, which are then exported to Russia.
Since the fall of last year, Western media, in particular Bloomberg, have been publishing materials about Russia’s military buildup near the Ukrainian borders and plans for this country to invade Ukraine. The United States and its allies are discussing the possibility of imposing sanctions in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as the Kremlin, have repeatedly stressed that the very idea of a war with Ukraine is unacceptable and the country is not going to attack anyone.