Are the sanctions against Russia effective? Yes. They are already severely hurting Vladimir Putin and his associates, and their influence will intensify over time. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the European Union has adopted six sanctions packages now targeting some 1,200 people and 98 bodies in Russia, as well as significant sections of the Russian economy. These sanctions were taken in coordination with the 7G companies, and more than 40 other countries adopted them or took similar steps.
By the end of 2022, the EU will reduce fuel imports from Russia by 90%, and it will rapidly reduce gas imports from it. Of course rapid withdrawal from Russian energy is causing serious difficulties for many EU countries, but this is the price we must pay to protect our democracies and international law, and we are taking the necessary steps to deal with these problems in full solidarity.
Some will ask: Do these sanctions really have an impact on the Russian economy? The answer is yes. Russia must import products of significant value that it does not produce. As for advanced technologies, it is highly dependent on Europe and the United States, compared to a smaller dependence on China. In the military, the sanctions limit Russia’s ability to produce accurate missiles. Almost all foreign car manufacturers have decided to leave Russia, and the few cars manufactured by Russian manufacturers will be sold without airbags or automatic transmissions.
The Russian oil industry suffers from difficulties in accessing advanced technologies such as horizontal drilling. The ability of Russian industry to develop new wells under pressure is probably limited. In order to maintain air traffic, Russia will have to take most of its planes out of circulation and use spare parts that you extract from them to allow the other planes to fly.
In addition, there is a loss of access to financial markets, Russia has been cut off from most of the major global research networks, and there is a massive brain drain from it. China’s alternative to the Russian economy is limited, especially for high-tech products. To date, the Chinese government, which is heavily dependent on exports to developing countries, has not helped Russia circumvent Western sanctions. Will these significant effects lead Putin to change his strategic calculations? In the immediate term probably not: it seems that his moves are not made primarily out of economic logic. However, given the fact that the sanctions force him to choose between butter and cannons, they trap him in the tightening clamps.
Regarding the impact of sanctions on third-party countries, especially African countries that depend on wheat from Russia and Ukraine and fertilizers, the responsibility is clear. Our sanctions are in no way directed against wheat exports or fertilizers from Russia, and Ukraine is denied the possibility of exporting its wheat due to the Black Sea siege and the destruction caused by the Russian aggression. If such issues arise in connection with our sanctions, we will be prepared to put in place the appropriate mechanisms to address them. I informed our African partners about this and asked them not to be deceived by the lies spread by the Russian authorities.
The real answer to the difficulties in the energy and food markets is to end the war through a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. Respect for the territorial integrity of states and non-use of force are not Western or European principles, they are the basis of international law, and Russia tramples on them. Consent to such a violation would open the door to the Jungle Law on a global scale. In the face of the invasion of Ukraine we have proved that when we are challenged, Europe can respond. Since we are not interested in a war with Russia, economic sanctions are the crux of this response. They are already starting to make an impact, and in the coming months will make an even greater impact.
The author is the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Vice-President of the European Commission.