The euro will not be able to win back the position of the main currency for world settlements from the US dollar. Saxo Bank Investment Director Steen Jacobsen shared this forecast in an interview with RIA Novosti.
“There is no chance that the European currency will take the lead, and the reason for this is several things, but above all, the most important of them is that the ECB is the most static central bank in the world,” he said.
The European regulator has kept the base interest rate on loans at zero level since March 2016. In December, ECB President Christine Lagarde called a rate hike in 2022 unlikely. In November, Eurostat reported, annual inflation in the eurozone reached its highest level in 25 years for which data are available, at 4.9%.
In addition, Jacobsen believes that the European economy should grow at a faster pace than the rest of the world or show a current account surplus. At the same time, the surplus is decreasing due to the difficult situation in the service sector, including in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone.
According to the system of interbank transfers SWIFT, the dollar retained its position as the leading currency in international settlements in November – its share amounted to 39.16%, having increased by 1.53% over the year. The euro occupied the second line with 37.66% (+ 0.22% per year). The top five also include the British pound (6.72%), the Japanese yen (2.58%) and the Chinese yuan (2.14%). The share of the Russian ruble in world settlements is 0.18%; it is in the top twenty of the rating.
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