Coronavirus pandemic ,
Jan 17, 08:33
IHME scientists: in early February, the number of COVID infections in Russia will exceed 85 thousand per day
The peak incidence in Russia will be at the end of January – beginning of February, according to the forecast of researchers from the University of Washington. The daily number of infections in the next month will exceed 80,000 for several days.
Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / TASS
The peak incidence of coronavirus infection COVID-19 in Russia may occur on January 22, follows from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Vedomosti drew attention to the forecast.
According to experts, by the beginning of February this will be evident from official statistics: according to their calculations, in the first days of the month, the number of cases of infection will exceed 80 thousand per day. The maximum figure – 85.8 thousand – will fall on February 4, they expect. Subsequently, according to the IHME chart, the number of daily reported cases will decline and drop to 30,000 by the end of February.
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The IHME forecast is based on previous trends and is updated every two weeks. According to the researchers, the peak of the load on healthcare will occur on February 9 and will require 133,200 beds, which is comparable to the loading of hospitals in November last year.
Infectionist, chief physician of Invitro-Siberia Andrey Pozdnyakov, in a conversation with the newspaper, also suggested that the greatest increase in the incidence will occur in February, and after that the situation will stabilize. However, he noted that the concept of “peak incidence” due to large distances in Russia is quite loose, and mathematical models have not often come true before. The general director of the Rassvet clinic, Alexei Paramonov, in turn, believes that the peak of the increase in the incidence may occur in February or closer to March.
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