Scientific advisers in the UK expect to be confirmed hundreds of cases of infection with the Omicron coronavirus strain. That being said, some of them may predate the earliest cases of the new variant found in South Africa last week.
Scientists are gearing up to confirm hundreds of Omicron cases in the UK over the next week, according to The Guardian in an exclusive report. What’s more, some of them may predate the earliest cases of Omicron found in South Africa last week, but may still be related to travelers from South Africa.
Omicron, which is considered to be more transmissive than the dominant variants of COVID-19 and which can bypass the effects of vaccination, was first reported to the World Health Organization from South Africa on November 24.
The UK is one of the busiest air transport hubs in the world and, like South Africa, has a large genomics sector to identify options associated with infections, increasing the likelihood of both importation and case detection.
Two cases were announced in the UK on Saturday, and the number increased to three on Sunday, all due to people traveling to South Africa. On Monday morning, six new cases were identified in Scotland associated with the Omicron variant, and this time some of the cases did not travel. The discovery raised concerns that Omicron may already be common among the UK population.
Scientists have previously emphasized that while the flight ban may delay the delivery of the Omicron, a new option will nevertheless emerge. It was hoped that such measures would buy time and enable more people to receive booster vaccinations.
Now, according to The Guardian, scientists are preparing for the possibility of detecting several hundred cases of the Omicron variant within a few days.
Professor Michael Tildesley, an expert in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases at the University of Warwick and a member of the Spi-M modeling team that advises the British government, said: there will probably be more infections. “
Tildesley added that at this stage, contact tracing can help determine how many cases there may already be in the population: “But there is still uncertainty about how much this new variant is being transmitted, how effective vaccines might be, and how serious the Omicron infection is.
The University of Edinburgh epidemiologist Professor Rowland Kao says the discovery of two clusters of cases in Scotland – Lanarkshire and Greater Glasgow – without obvious connections or travel, suggests at least two separate pathways for the new variant of the coronavirus.
“Of course, if it spreads quickly, as initial reports from South Africa suggest, then it won’t take long for the number of cases to rise to hundreds,” said Professor Kao, adding that if the doubling times for infections are similar to Delta , then 25 cases of Omicron infection can now mean 100 cases in 10 days.
Prof Kao believes travel restrictions can still be beneficial, potentially reducing the number of outbreaks and, at least for now, helping to root them out. “However, this is not at all guaranteed, and therefore, as always, additional efforts to reduce the spread now may have great epidemiological benefits in the future,” he said. – Any measures we are taking now may of course be unwarranted if in fact the Omicron option turns out to be favorable enough to keep the overall levels of severe infection and hospitalization manageable, but we probably will not know about this for several weeks “.
See also: The contagiousness of the Omicron coronavirus strain was compared with chickenpox and measles
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