Climate models that predict the extent of climate change depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) accumulating in the atmosphere are becoming more accurate and provide clear guidance for decision-making.
However, the effects of related events, such as crop failures or the destruction of infrastructure during extreme weather events, which are likely to become more frequent as the climate warms, have been less studied.
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) reviewed what is currently known about “catastrophic impacts” and found that there are significant knowledge gaps.
In an article published žurnale „Proceedings of the National Academy of Science“ it proposes an international research program to help governments prepare for “worst-case and worst-case scenarios.”
The authors of the article draw attention to the “four horsemen of the apocalypse” of a potentially disastrous climate development scenario – hunger and poverty, extreme weather, conflicts and epidemics.
“The irreversible and potentially catastrophic risks posed by human-induced climate change must be factored into our planning and actions,” said PIK chief Johan Rockstrom, co-author of the study.
As more research is done on tipping points in Earth’s climate, such as the irreversible melting of the ice caps or the moment when the Amazon rain forest becomes a source of carbon dioxide instead of a sink, it is becoming increasingly clear that climate modeling needs to take into account large risk scenario.
“It’s important to do the mathematical calculations of a catastrophe so that it can be avoided,” explained Mr. Rockstrom.
“Inadequate caution”
The paper’s authors point out that a series of United Nations climatology reports have focused mostly on the effects of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius of warming, but have barely addressed the possibility of what would happen if the world warms much more.
So far, governments’ plans would see the climate warming by 2.7 degrees by the end of this century, much higher than the 1.5 degrees predicted in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
The study suggests that scientists’ habit of “estimating the bias toward a less dramatic scenario” has led to insufficient attention to calculations of what would happen if the climate warmed by three degrees or more.
“This caution is understandable, but inadequate to the risks and potential harms that climate change can cause,” the article says.
In addition, long-term climate models and risk assessments are difficult to incorporate low-probability but extremely high-impact events.
Researchers estimate that areas with a population of 2 billion people, could turn into extremely hot areas by 2070, where the average annual temperature would be higher than 29 degrees Celsius.
Scientists have warned that rapid climate warming is increasing the threat to key agricultural regions, bringing droughts similar to those that recently hit Western Europe or heat waves that hit India’s wheat crop in March and April.
The study’s authors are calling for a special UN science report to look at “catastrophic climate change scenarios”, similar to a 2018 report on the effects of 1.5 degrees of warming.
“We need to get serious about what lies ahead as our planet moves into uncharted territory,” said Joeri Rogeljis, director of research at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, who was not involved in the study.
“Studying these extreme cases means we can be better prepared,” he added.
2024-08-21 19:47:35