By February, the number of cases of coronavirus detected per day in Russia could reach 65,000. Based on the forecast of a mathematical model, a group of researchers from the Center for Intelligent Logistics of St. Petersburg State University (SPbU) came to this conclusion.
The mathematical model CIR (Confirmed cases, Infected, Removed – English “confirmed cases”, “infected”, “excluded” – recovered or died), due to new methods for predicting future values of its parameters, makes it possible to more accurately predict the spread of coronavirus for up to a month, said TASS Center head Viktor Zakharov.
The authors presented data on the effectiveness of the model in the scientific journal Informatics and Automation in October. According to Zakharov, CIR predicts that the number of detected cases of coronavirus per day could reach 65,000 by February 1, and the total number of cases will be more than 11.5 million people. At the moment, 10,803,534 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Russia, the operational headquarters reported.
The scientist named the number of Russians who will simultaneously suffer from coronavirus by February. Now it is 623,599, but it could rise to 1 million.
If the growth rate of the incidence continues until mid-February, then there will be even more cases, it follows from the words of Zakharov.
“In this case, in the middle of the second decade of February, the number of new cases per day may exceed 110,000, and the number of active cases of the disease will reach the level of 1.8 million. After that, the growth in the number of new cases of the disease will slow down or the daily incidence will begin to decrease,” said the head of the Center intelligent logistics.
On January 12, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that the country would not be able to avoid an increase in the incidence of COVID-19 against the backdrop of the spread of the Omicron strain. This variant of the virus was discovered in southern Africa in early November last year. It turned out that the strain contains 32 mutations – more than all the previous ones. Due to this, it is more contagious, but less likely to cause a severe course of the disease, Anna Popova, head of Rospotrebnadzor, noted.
Over the past day, 29,230 new cases of coronavirus have been detected in the country, 686 people have died, the operational headquarters said on January 16.
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