Time.news – On June 27, 47.7 million French are expected to vote for the second round of the regional elections. Worry record abstention – big winner of last Sunday’s vote – and the outcome is still uncertain in some of the 13 regions in the ballot. The results of the first round, with 66.73% of abstentions, swept away the certainties of all parties, in one vote test ahead of the presidential elections of April 2022 which looms as a face to face between the president Emmanuel Macron and the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Voter turnout is considered to be the main stake.
Abstention estimated at 65%
In the second round of the French regional elections, the low participation of voters was also confirmed. The estimate is an abstention of about 65%. According to official figures, up to 5 pm 27.89% of those entitled had voted, one percentage point more than in the first shift (when it was 26.72% at the same time) and in free fall compared to the previous regional ones in December 2015 (50.54%) and the departmental ones in March of the same year (41, ninety two%).
So at the starting line
Competing in the second round and in an advantageous position are many presidents of outgoing regions of the traditional right (The Republicans, LR), socialists and allies, but also centrists, who have a good chance of remaining in office in this vote defined as “conservative” by French analysts. There is also expectation to see if after the very disappointing results of last Sunday the far-right party of the National grouping (RN), given the lead in six regions in the latest polls, will manage to win at least in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (Paca). The Republic on the Move President Macron’s (LREM) failed to transform its nationwide popularity into promising results locally, and the 2016-born movement suffered a bitter defeat.
The election campaign, which ended Friday evening, was marked by very harsh tones and it has seen various alliances, in particular on the left between socialists and environmentalists, in addition to the withdrawal of some candidates and calls to vote for the Gaullist right against the extreme right. During the week, the highest officials of the state and the leaders of the main parties also launched heartfelt appeals to the voters, especially the younger ones (among the under 35s, abstention reached 80%).
The picture region by region
At the center of the election reports is the duel in Paca region, disputed between the far-right candidate Thierry mariani, on which Le Pen has invested a lot of his credibility and his hopes, finished in the lead in the first round and the Republican Renaud Muselier, up by two points according to the latest Ifop poll for the Figaro. Muselier, outgoing president, will benefit from the withdrawal of the left-wing list of Jean-Laurent Felizia, who has launched an appeal to vote for him against the extremist Mariani, in a region historically anchored to the right.
Even the Paris region, France’s Island, is at the center of media attention: the outgoing president Valerie Pecresse (LR, Gaullist right) is given a 10-point lead over the left-wing union list led by the environmentalist Julien Bayou, ally to the socialist Audrey Pulvar it’s at Clementive Autain of France rebellious (LFI, radical left). In the Hauts-de-France, the Republican Xavier Bertrand he is given an advantage in the ballot, with En Marche calling on his electorate to vote for him against the far right and the Socialist-Green alliance (EELV) and LFI. In Auvergne Rhone Alps at the top of the polls is another candidate from Les Republicains, Laurent Wauquiez. Both Pecresse, Wauquiez and Bertrand are three potential right-wing candidates in next year’s presidential elections, for whom the election to lead a region is a stepping stone.
In Normandy victory should go to the centrist Hervè Morin, ally of the Republicains, which enjoys greater support than rivals on the left, far right and En Marche. Even in Pays de la Loire to dominate is also the traditional right with Christelle Morancais that should get the victory over the left-wing alliance candidate, the environmentalist Matthew Orphan, on the former minister En Marche Francois de Rugin e Hervè Juvin del RN.
The challenge in the Grand east
Also in the Great East the balance is in favor of Jean Rottner (Les Republicains) which will be measured with the far right (Laurent Jacobelli), the left list of Eliane Romani and En Marche with Brigitte Klinkert. In other five regions, on the other hand, the socialist candidates are in an advantageous position, mostly of outgoing presidents, who arrived at the head of the first round, but in some cases the outcome of the vote remains open to the opponents, and the PS has not always close alliances with ecologists, a force in constant electoral growth since 2015. In Occitania ballot boxes should be in favor of Carole Delga, in Burgundy Franche-Comté a Marie-Guite Dufay, in New Aquitaine in Rousset, in Brittany a Loic Chesnais-Girard and in Center of the Loire Valley a Francois Bonneau. In Corsica the favorite is Gilles Simeoni of ‘Femu a Corsica’, which failed to agree with other regionalists.
Towards a reshuffle
Looking further, the French media refer to the next “technical reshuffle” of the government of Jean Castex, expected in the coming weeks. According to Le Monde, the ministers involved in the regional teams will not be sanctioned despite the heavy defeat recorded by some of them. After all, at the last Council of Ministers, President Macron assured that “there is no national consequence to be drawn from a local vote, with the exception of participation”. While for the traditional political forces, both on the right with Les Republicains and on the left with the Socialist Party, the verdict of the polls in their favor marks their return also at the national level, with new scenarios that could open up to the presidential elections. “In reality, the new electoral map of France is very difficult to read and nothing is clear any more,” said Olivier Faye, political analyst at Le Monde.
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