2024-08-01 12:23:43
(ANSA) – ROME, JULY 31 – The unexpected acceleration of inflation in the eurozone to 2.6% in July (with the core figure still stable at 2.9% despite expectations of a deceleration) could represent a new concern for the European Central Bank. However, analysts are still almost all in agreement in predicting that, for the moment, nothing will change in Frankfurt’s strategy. The next meeting of the Eurotower board is scheduled for September 12 and before then other macroeconomic data (including August inflation) will have to be carefully evaluated and the Fed’s next decisions monitored, starting with this evening’s. The markets have bet on a 50-point cut by the end of the year and continue to expect a first move in September. However, some Bloomberg analysts point out that services inflation remains at “unpleasantly high levels”, despite having slightly decreased from 4.1% to 4%. Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at T. Rowe Price, instead highlights the upward impact of goods linked to the increase in shipping costs from China recorded in the last two months. “The ECB – he explains – is probably aware that the increase in core goods inflation should be temporary. In its communications and deliberations, the ECB has placed a lot of emphasis on services inflation, because it is the measure closest to domestically generated inflation. ECB policymakers were mainly concerned about the emergence of second-cycle effects. But today’s data on services inflation show that the recent trend of services disinflation is continuing. From the ECB’s point of view, the data published today are consistent with a quarterly pace of cuts. It is therefore likely that it will continue to cut its key rates in September and December”. Also according to Giacomo Calef, country head Italy of NS Partners, the ECB “will probably continue to ease its restrictive monetary policy in the autumn”. (ANSA).
2024-08-01 12:23:43