It has now been several weeks since the Iranian nuclear agreement is only a matter of days. Presented as imminent, the return to the 2015 “JCPOA” (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear program) is long overdue, and seems to have passed, like other regional issues, to the background of diplomatic concerns since the war is raging in Ukraine. A weariness also seems to have set in. “Let’s get rid of this agreement, which belongs to ancient history, pleads a specialist in the region. We need Iranian oil and gas. »
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There was certainly some initial interference, when Moscow played spoilsport on March 5, demanding guarantees from Washington that its future cooperation with Tehran in civilian nuclear power would not be affected by the sanctions linked to its invasion of Iran. Ukraine – under the 2015 agreement, it is up to Russia to export the excess tonnes of uranium enriched by Iran. Judged requirements ” off topic ” par Washington.
“The key to negotiations is in Washington”
But this brake now released, the United States and Iran pass the buck for the delay in this file, discussed for a year in Vienna by European negotiators (France, Germany, United Kingdom), Chinese and Russian on the one hand, and Iranian on the other. “The Europeans are secondary players. We are now at the stage of political decisions, believes Clément Therme, lecturer at Sciences Po. The key to the negotiations is in Washington. »
One of the blockages is linked to the Revolutionary Guards, a powerful military organization and ideological armed wing of the regime, which would like to see it removed from the American list of terrorist organizations, which the United States refuses. The Iranians, who are taking advantage of the breath of fresh air offered by the surge in the price of hydrocarbons, are also showing less eagerness to conclude the negotiation. “Tehran’s position is linked to the nature of the regime, for which the ideological interest comes before the economic interest”, adds the specialist of Iran about the reduction of the economic sanctions envisaged in the event of agreement.
The scenario of a non-agreement does not seem taboo. “The leadership in Tehran is not worried. He would be happy if it happened, because there are billions and billions of currencies blocked in foreign banksexplains an Iranian diplomat. But for all these years, the Iranians have learned to circumvent the sanctions. »
“The risk of proliferation is unambiguous”
On the American side, the haste is also less noticeable. Joe Biden had however made the return to the JCPOA a priority of his mandate after the withdrawal of the agreement decided by Donald Trump in 2018. But after claiming to be “close to a possible agreement” on March 16, Washington backtracked six days later, saying a deal “of this kind is neither imminent nor certain”and said he was ready to make decisions “difficult”. Six months before the mid-term elections, the American president is notably under strong pressure from elected officials from the Republican Party, largely hostile to an agreement, from part of the Democrats and from his Israeli ally.
And even if it were signed, Joe Biden would have no constitutional means to guarantee it beyond his term. “Therefore, the Iranians wonder whether it is better to take the agreement for two years, and fill their coffers with a barrel at 130 dollars, thanks to the lifting of sanctions, or to adopt the nuclear threshold immediately. (acquiring the ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon, Editor’s note) », summarizes a specialist in questions of strategy.
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The Europeans, who acted as intermediaries for the United States for a year in Vienna, do not hide their impatience. “The nuclear clock is ticking, the capacity in quantity, quality and production increases, as their research and development increases and the risk of proliferation is unambiguous”, warns a French diplomat. Iran may not have an operational nuclear device, but according to a recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it is approaching the “threshold” and continues to accumulate uranium stocks. enriched, which exceed the limit authorized by the 2015 agreement by more than 15 times.
Outside its borders, Iran does not keep a low profile in its area of influence either. “We are even witnessing a military escalation at the time when the agreement is to be concluded, whereas the conclusion of the JCPOA had been preceded from 2013 to 2015 by a military de-escalation”, notes Clément Therme. On March 13, Iran claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Erbil, Iraq, which targeted an Israeli “strategic center”. As for the Houthi militia that Tehran supports in Yemen, it is accused of carrying out several recent missile attacks against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.