1. Multiple groups, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and GAP, are orchestrating recent events for three reasons: the status of the Temple Mount during Ramadan, vulnerability to Iranian targets in the region, and opportunity arising from internal situations in Israel and the IDF.
2. The idea of Palestinian organizations making strategic moves from within Lebanon during a holiday without involvement from Nasrallah and the Revolutionary Guards is false. The media in Lebanon is attempting to give Israel an alternative to head-to-head confrontation with Hezbollah.
3. Israel’s deterrence has weakened due to weak responses to provocations and Hezbollah operatives’ super-immunity in the region. Nasrallah knows Israel will do everything to prevent a third Lebanon and is willing to take risks that could strategically damage Israel.
4. Despite the risk of a full-on war with Israel, Nasrallah may believe that even the extreme scenario is worth it because of the potential for strategic damage.
5. Israel has struggled to control what happens at the Temple Mount during Ramadan. The Jewish presence is increasing, while security is weakening, leading to yearly explosions during this holiday.
6. It’s possible that the axis of resistance is working in tandem, meaning Israel might face two active rocket arenas, manned terrorism, and PSDM in Jerusalem and Israel. The challenge for Israel is to separate the arenas outside and unite ranks inside.
7. Hamas adds another option for decision-makers by focusing the main response in Gaza instead of confronting Hezbollah head-on in Lebanon.
8. The Temple Mount needs to be neutralized for the rest of Ramadan, meaning managing the Jewish elite strictly and breaking into the mosque only when all other options are exhausted. Netanyahu needs to handle this himself and utilize right-wing organizations.
9. The shooting from Lebanon should encourage Netanyahu to take action, such as announcing the final closure of the legal revolution, managing the Temple Mount himself, and establishing a national emergency government should a significant round occur.
1. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, GAP and others are pulling the strings for three reasons: 1- The Temple Mount and what they experience as a profound change in the status quo in general and in Ramadan in particular 2- An open account of our vulnerability to Iranian targets in the region 3- They recognize a significant opportunity due to the internal situation in Israel and the crisis in the IDF
2. Needless to say, but I will point out – there is no such thing as Palestinian organizations making a strategic move of this type from within Lebanon, in the middle of the holiday, without Nasrallah and the Revolutionary Guards at the event. The briefing by the media in Lebanon that this is a Palestinian operation is intended, as usual, to give Israel space for a reaction that is not head-to-head with Hezbollah.
3. The Israeli deterrence has been eroded for years. The cumulative effect of weak responses to provocations on the border, the establishment of the equation according to which Hezbollah operatives enjoy super-immunity in the region and the successful poker of the threat to Harish, taught Nasrallah that Israel will do everything to prevent a third Lebanon. This is his calculation and you have to deal with it.
4. Nasrallah also had to take into account a scenario in which Israel reacts with full force in Lebanon: days of battle or full-on war. He probably came to the conclusion that even the extreme scenario is a risk worth taking since the damage that can be caused to Israel is strategic, for example an internal political collapse, a lack of functioning of the IDF or a serious violation of the Abraham Accords.
5. It should be said – Israel does not manage, this is the third Ramadan, to take control of what is happening on the Temple Mount. The visibility of the Jewish presence on the Mount is increasing, and at the same time Israel’s security grip is weakening. This imbalance leads to explosion after explosion, year after year. Ramadan has become the main point of gravity in the political and security calendar in Israel.
6. Since it appears on the face of it that the axis of resistance is working in tandem – one must take into account an extreme scenario of two active rocket arenas, with all that is implied, and of course manned terrorism and the PSDM in Jerusalem and inside Israel. The Israeli challenge in one sentence: to separate the arenas outside, and unite ranks inside.
7. It can be assumed that the involvement of Hamas adds to the decision-makers another option to the basket of possible responses: an opportunity to bypass head-on with Hezbollah through a symbolic price tag in Lebanon and focusing the main response in Gaza.
8. In all scenarios, the Temple Mount should first and foremost be neutralized for the rest of Ramadan. To neutralize = manage the Jewish elite in a strict way and break into the mosque only when all ends are exhausted. Netanyahu needs to do this himself in front of the complicit, from Maz Jerusalem and the Shin Bet and to also harness the right-wing organizations that deal with the rise to Mt.
9. Netanyahu should look at the shooting from Lebanon as a wake-up call from the universe: to announce the final closure of the traffic accident known as the legal revolution, to disperse the cloud of dismissal over the head of the Minister of Defense, to manage what is happening on the Temple Mount by himself, and if we are going to a significant round that, as mentioned, could be multi-faceted – act to establish a national emergency government.