Two Iranian warships, the IRIS Makran (IRIS Makran) and the frigate IRIS Dena (IRIS Dena) appeared near the border of Australia’s economic waters, 200 miles beyond the exclusive 12 miles from the coast, on a mission to test the ability of the Iranian Navy to sail long distances, this time a voyage around to the globe
The Iranian warships are now on their way to cross the Pacific Ocean, passing near the islands of French Polynesia. The Iranians want to show the West, the United States and Israel in particular, that they are not afraid of the sanctions that the United States imposed on them during the time of the previous American President Donald Trump, after he withdrew from the nuclear agreement of the major powers with Iran.
Trump’s sanctions are still in effect, a new agreement on the nuclear issue is not in sight, and this situation leads the Iranians to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Iranians recognize suicide drones for use by Russia in its war in Ukraine, a war that will mark one year in six weeks.
The emirates in the service of Iran
Trump’s sanctions resulted in Iranian oil exports falling from 2.7 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2018 to 0.5 million barrels per day in May 2019. In recent months, oil exports increased to a rate of 0.81-1.2 million barrels per day, mainly to China and Syria. Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates also receive Iranian oil in order to export it again. Yes, the emirates from the Avraham agreements export oil bypassing sanctions to Asia.
After the West failed to crush the Russian economy by removing the banking system of the Russian Federation from the massive international payment and clearing system, SWIFT (SWIFT, the lifeblood of the world economy, performs 5 billion international financial operations per year between most countries in the world), the American administration, along with seven The richest countries in the world and Australia, to limit the purchase price of a barrel of Russian oil to 60 dollars.
But the Russians do not surrender. True, the public in Russia suffers from increasing poverty, but the delivery of soldiers to the front continues, and there is no information on the number of casualties of the Russian army. The Russians have also moved to an international payment system that bypasses the West by forcing buyers of Russian oil to pay in rubles as well as by increasing the purchase of gold as an alternative to hoarding foreign exchange, away from the American dollar that dominates the world for about two thirds of international activity, which the Americans can get their hands on at any moment. This is why price Gold rises during a period of rising interest rates in the world, contrary to what is written in the economics books.
The American administration is indeed fighting the Russians by increasing the delivery of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, this openly. But President Biden’s administration is also looking at the residual profit the American economy will have from limiting the price of Russian oil. A decrease in the international price of oil will reduce the rate of inflation in the US. The American economy is very sensitive to the fuel price of vehicles, which remains the main source of power for the American car, the lifeblood of the American citizen, who sees the price of gasoline as a measure of his standard of living and his freedom to travel and roam.
The drop in oil prices, which is happening right now, will increase the trend towards a reduction in the currently collapsing sea freight prices as well as a drop in the prices of goods in the world. In the future, the increase in international trade, which was severely affected this year due to the world entering an economic slowdown and some countries into recession (such as Germany and Great Britain, two of the richest countries in 7G), and a decrease in the rate of increase in the consumer price index in the United States in the coming months will allow the Central Bank of the United States, The Fed, to significantly slow down the interest rate increase, which reached 4.32%.
In practice, the interest rate charged on businesses in the US is higher than the official increase in interest, due to a decrease in the credit volume of the American banking system and a more drastic increase in the commercial interest rate for the economy systems.
If everything goes well, according to the secret plan of the American administration to hurt Russia, to hit the arrogant Iran that is increasingly becoming an ally of the Russians – this will also lead to a reduction in inflation. In this hidden scenario, the Fed could start reducing interest rates in 2024, after the interest rate (even earlier) qualified this year to 5.1% or more, according to an estimate.
So the year 2024, which is the year of the presidential elections in the USA, will look much better to the American citizen. The same applies to the capital and financial market which will be able to flourish, after it hit Americans and the whole world in 2022, with a force that has not been equaled since 2008. The flourishing of the markets and the renewal of the feeling of wealth In 2024, the Democratic Party and President Biden or another candidate of the party can be like a magic staff – and renew the Democratic presidency in the White House on January 20, 2025.
Demonstration in China (Photo: NOEL CELIS.GettyImages)Just because of the wind
For the time being, what helps the drop in oil prices in the world are the slowdown and recession in the West and the real slowdown in China, which causes a drop in energy demand. Temporarily, as of now, even the winter weather in Europe, even though it started with a cold wave, is relatively not difficult. That’s why electricity rates in Europe have been dropping drastically in recent weeks, contrary to what was observed just a few weeks ago.
It is possible that what could disrupt the Americans’ world-embracing secret plan is the Chinese’s tremendous decision to move from a policy of closures and restrictions, which severely damaged economic activity in terms of output and public motivation, to a policy of opening all markets and economic activity and services of all kinds without restriction, in order to return the economy to growth.
The Chinese simply do not believe that their mighty economy, which worked wonders for half a century – has disappeared. According to estimates, the GDP increased in 2022 by only 2.7%, half of the forecast, and much less than the demand of the Chinese authorities and the Chinese Communist Party, which has been resurrected in recent years. The International Monetary Fund predicts that this year’s growth of the Chinese economy will be 4.3%.
China does not wait long and has simultaneously begun to carry out a massive monetary expansion, pouring hundreds of billions of dollars, in local currency, into the economic system through the banking system, including mortgages at a very discounted price to stabilize the collapsed residential construction industry.
If China succeeds in the task of resuming growth to high levels, this means that Chinese demand for oil will return and rise, which could disrupt the American plan to limit the price of oil in international markets. In order to succeed in this, more money from the central bank is not enough.
The Chinese will be forced to invest in and restore the health system, to optimize the hospital system, shamelessly, also with help from the West regarding the corona vaccine, so that the changing corona changes will not harm their ability to return to full work, consumption, production and a renewed increase in exports to the whole world.
Of course, the Israeli economy will also benefit as a result of the moves of the powerful Western countries. Cheaper oil will cut inflation in half in Israel. That is, it will make it possible to reduce the inflation rate within two years towards 2%, the mid-term goal of the Israeli governments, as well as to limit the scope of interest rate increases in the next year or two, thus increasing the rate of activity of the Israeli economy, today one of the strongest in the world – if not the strongest in the world.
The economic improvement in Israel in a year and beyond can preserve Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule and prevent early elections, at least in the next two years. Netanyahu will be able to return to his main occupation in recent years, beyond the needs of the interior, the ultra-Orthodox, the Messianic and the short-sighted militants, and reevaluate how to deal with the Iranian threat that has not expired.
If, God forbid, there is a security crisis, it is better for it to happen as early as possible, so that it is possible to act utilitarianly, without the messiahs. In the event of a real emergency, the leader of the state camp, Benny Gantz, will receive the approval to join the Netanyahu government and dilute the power of the extremists in his government, who have not heard of the need to take into account the opinion of the nations of the world, and especially the United States, for our support.
Sea in a mess
Israel indirectly benefits from the international process led by the Americans. The volume of Iran’s oil exports is still lower than the potential it had before the sanctions were imposed. Falling oil receipts reduce the sources of funding for the Iranian war machine scattered from Syria and Lebanon to Yemen.
Russia’s presence in Syria is also decreasing due to difficulties in Ukraine, which increases Israel’s scope for action, according to foreign sources, in order to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon.
The low price of oil that the Americans indirectly make available to Israel is critical for Israel vis-a-vis Iran. At the moment, Israel is getting stronger economically and continuously, which no country in the world can match.
Israel’s achievements include, among others: a zero budget deficit, a huge current account surplus, a very low debt to GDP, a high employment rate, handsome tax collection, not only from the real estate sector. , as we managed to get him to spend 180 billion shekels to fight the corona virus, just because the economy is (still) rich, and at its best.
Israel does not have long-range logistics capabilities, which require refueling fighter jets over vast distances using flying tankers, which the Americans have not yet provided us. The Israeli alternative to the refueling planes, for now, is to use its intelligence organizations to thwart Iranian progress in the nuclear field and the attempt to surround Israel with more accurate missiles in huge quantities.
On the other side of the field, the Iranians hold annual naval exercises with China and Russia. Until the fateful military confrontation with Iran, the Iranian warships will have time to circumnavigate the world and return to their base in one of the naval ports in the Indian Ocean or in one of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval ports to the north, beyond the Gulf of Hormuz. They will do this to prove to Israel that Iran also has long-term arms. Admittedly not aerial, but naval.