2023-12-16 21:41:58
It’s the favorite distraction of millions of French people: predicting the results of competitions. With the Miss France 2024 show this Saturday, a consulting firm using artificial intelligence has revealed what the final results will be. The Parisian also played the game by revealing his five favorites.
These predictions question our readers, who questioned our reporter on this subject during a live question-and-answer session this Saturday, a few hours before the competition was broadcast. “It seems that artificial intelligence software said that Miss Côte d’Azur would be the winner, after having given last year’s winner? Is it true ? And if so, how is this possible? » Ursule asked us.
“This is the case, software can find a good answer based on many parameters, and on social networks, we can see misses appear more popular than others, surveys, trends before the election. But this remains totally random and not at all predetermined. No one knows which candidate will seduce the jury, nor how the votes will be influenced live by the telegeny of the misses and especially their speeches, which can suddenly make them favorites or almost eliminate them if they miss out or fail. unable to free themselves,” assures our reporter.
How does this artificial intelligence work?
This AI is used by the consulting firm Avisia which says it predicts the top 5. “Different data sources are used to build a model (…) Using the Web Scraping technique on Wikipedia, we collect data on the characteristics of the candidates (region, age, size, etc.) as well as on the composition of the jury (sex, age, etc.)”, presents the firm on its site.
Then, Avisia scans all the messages on X (formerly Twitter) to “collect the tweets associated with the hashtags of our regional Misses. Subsequently, a sentiment analysis is carried out on these tweets with the aim of classifying it according to its nature (positive or negative) and thus knowing the public’s opinion.
Avisia will also use Instagram to compare the popularity of the Misses “by taking into account the notoriety of their profile, their publications (by analyzing the comments under their posts), as well as by examining the posts mentioning the Misses”. Finally, they do the same to test the popularity of the candidates on the social network TikTok.
According to their analysis – which therefore consists of translating popularity by number of public votes during the show – here is what the top 5 would be this Saturday evening: Karla Bchir (Miss Côte d’Azur) would be elected Miss France ahead of Elena Faliez (Miss Île-de-France) Audrey Ho Wen Tsai (Miss Guyana), Adeline Vetter (Miss Alsace) and Jalylane Maes (Miss Guadeloupe).
How are Miss France elected?
To understand why these predictions can be undermined, we must turn to the selection criteria which lead to the top 5. In fact, public opinion (which is ultimately the main criterion scrutinized by Avisia) is not taken into account. account.
The 15 semi-finalists will not be chosen by the public, nor even by the 100% female jury of the evening. In reality, they have already been chosen after a long interview with a large jury and following general knowledge tests. This is made up of professionals from the Miss France company, former misses, but also partners of the show, specialists in cosmetics for example.
After this interview, the portrait of each candidate is broadcast to the jury and each one performs two fashion shows: one in an evening dress and the other in a swimsuit. It is only then that the jury and the public intervene equally on Saturday evening, to go from 15 semi-finalists to 5 finalists then elect the new Miss France. We will know halfway through the show if Avisia has any chance of success. Or if it’s already off topic. Not to mention that he is not immune to a failed speech.
What success in previous elections?
Excavations based on social networks have led to mixed results in recent years. In 2022, Avisia had planned the presence of only two of the five girls in the top 5. The AI had placed the first runner-up, Floriane Bascou (Miss Martinique), in first position. Cécile Wolfrom (Miss Alsace) would be, according to Avisia, 4th runner-up. She ultimately finished second runner-up. When the winner, Diane Leyre (Miss Île-de-France), was not in the top 5 of the consulting firm.
In 2023, the predictions were much better, with a three out of five in the predictions, including the first two of the competition in the first two positions and in the correct order. For this year, response around midnight.
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