This week, the spotlight was on the meeting in Moscow between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. During the visit of the Chinese president, it was mainly a question of gas. The two heads of state have reached an agreement on a gigantic gas pipeline project called “Siberian Force 2”, which should significantly increase China’s supplies of Russian gas.
There has been no announcement on the schedule for the construction of this work and on the amount of the contract. The only information disclosed was the scope of the project. Force de Sibérie 2 will be 2,600 km long, it will connect Western Siberia to Northeast China, via Mongolia and will eventually transport 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. This pipeline symbolizes Moscow’s new strategy of redirecting to the Middle Kingdom the volume of gas that the Europeans no longer want because of the invasion of Ukraine.
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Between 5 and 10 years before delivery?
Vladimir Putin has promised that his country will eventually be able to deliver to its neighbor 98 billion cubic meters of gas per year via its gas pipelines and 100 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas by 2030.
But the projects of the Russian president come up against reality. Concretely, these volumes of gas will not be available in the near future. According to Didier Julienne, expert in natural resources, it will take between 5 and 10 years to build this new gas pipeline.
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Modest sales volumes
For the moment, Russia has to make do with just one functioning gas pipeline, Siberian Force 1, which leaves the Russian Far East for China. Its current capacity is limited to 15.5 billion cubic meters per year, Moscow hopes to double it within 2 years.
China cannot therefore absorb on its own the volumes that Europeans bought before the conflict in Ukraine. However, Russian sales to Asia remain modest compared to the 155 million m3 that Moscow exported to Europe before the war in Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia must find other customers to dispose of its unsold stocks.
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