SIC/Expresso survey: AD and PS with a technical tie and Chega drops three percentage points

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Legislative Elections

SIC/EXPRESSO SURVEY

The survey carried out by ICS and ISCTE for SIC and Expresso places the Democratic Alliance ahead of the PS, but by just one percentage point which, with the margin of error, gives a technical tie between the Central Bloc parties. Furthermore, with or without undecided voters, the right continues to need Chega to have a majority.

10 days before the legislative elections, the AD surpasses the PS in the ICS and ISCTE opinion study for SIC and Expresso, reversing the order of the last survey, a month ago. The difference is just one percentage point, which falls well within the poll’s margin of error, which also reveals that the number of undecided voters remains the same: 18%.

The poll used simulated voting in a ballot box between February 17th and 25th, in other words, taking only the first official day of the campaign and the picture is this: if the elections were held today, the AD would be the winning party, with 21% of the votesjust one above the PS (20%).

In practice, a technical tie, in a study whose margin of error is greater than 3%.

But what is certain, compared to the last survey a month ago, is that the positions of the two main parties are inverted, with AD to rise two percentage points and surpassing the PS, which loses three.

Chega also drops three points and is now at 12%, yet it remains in third and stands out from the other parties.

Left Bloc, with 3%IL, CDU and FREE with 2% and PAN, with only 1%. This is when there is still a high number of undecided people: 18%, the same as a month ago.

In blocks, the left comes together – including the PAN – would have 28%. The right – without Chega – only 23%, that is, it would be necessary join AndrĂ© Ventura’s party to reach 35% and achieve a majority.

Voting intention

SIC

The undecided

Making the distribution of undecidedthe scenario remains: AD continues to lead PS by just one point, 31% e 30%.

  • AD: 31%
  • PS:30%
  • Enough: 17%.
  • BE: 5%
  • IL: 4%
  • CDU:3%
  • Book: 2%
  • PAN: 2%

Adding the parties on the left, on the one hand, and those on the right, on the other, the conclusion is the same, AD and IL alone are insufficient to overtake the left: just 35% contra 42%. But if they include Chega in the equation they reach 52%.

Young people

Middle Ages

SIC

The opinion study also analyzed the profile of respondents, to conclude that the Liberal Initiative has a higher proportion of younger voters. The average age of those who stated that they intended to vote for Rui Rocha’s party is in the 32,6.

Those who are sure to vote Chega or BE are in the 50.

CDU, AD and PS – the latter with an average age of almost 60 years – are those with a proportion of older voters.

Abstentionists are around 45 years old, while in the universe of undecided, there is a higher proportion of voters over 50.

Datasheet

SIC

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