2023-10-23 08:21:22
Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko therefore decided to take the plunge last Saturday and continue his electoral campaign, while affirming his continued involvement in the Collective of 11 candidates. This rhetorical artifice of the posterior between two chairs will not convince many people outside his camp. Unfortunately for him, in a cultural context fed on the breasts of marimaritra iraisana with ny mitabe tsy lanin’ny mamba, seeing him abandon the Collective on his walks carrying cabbages causes incomprehension, suspicion and irritation.
For the moment, the rest of the Collective has refrained from making statements condemning this decision, contenting itself with recalling that the Diabe series continues this Monday. Roland Ratsiraka just allowed himself a dig on his Facebook page, deploring “that one of them is spreading propaganda while one of the candidates has been injured”. On the other hand, the majority of reactions on social media are very negative and attacks against Siteny are raining down. He is accused of playing into the hands of the government, or even of ultimately being nothing more than a pawn of Rajoelina or Ravatomanga, the most discreet and yet most omnipresent man in political and economic life in Madagascar. So much so that when people mention him, it’s in whispers or using various nicknames.
The anger and incomprehension are commensurate with the disappointment of the candidates and their supporters who see a major element weakening the collective ship by leaving it. It is probably also likely that he was one of the main sponsors, and that his step back may be a blow to costs. For example, we would be very curious to know which of its members has since contributed the most to the budget of the 11 candidates’ events, from the purchase of cauliflowers to the costs of the Antsonjombe rally last Saturday, including the rental of sound systems. to each diabe.
Siteny’s recent declarations in fact endorse the holding of an election whose conditions and context are criticized from all sides, from the Collective of 11 candidates to the FFKM, including civil society and the international community. The fact that he continues to demand the cleaning up of the electoral system alongside the 10 other candidates, while demonstrating his desire to go to the election under current conditions is a paradox which generates legitimate incomprehension. Those who think that the solidity of the bloc of 11 candidates also made it possible to move towards a Transition to clean up the system before going to the elections are just as disappointed.
On a political level, however, we can find reasons for the choice of candidate number 13, even if his decision provoked the anger of those who know that there is a difference between a Collective without Siteny and a Collective with him. Consequently, the power of the group to obtain satisfaction of its demands diminishes, because there are therefore at least three candidates willing to go to the polls under current conditions. Without forgetting the risk that Siteny’s defection will spread.
Valid reasons
The first valid reason is that, as we had already pointed out in a previous editorial, Siteny was on a positive dynamic thanks to its Mihava Tour. Suspending it was then a step backwards, and the capital of national notoriety garnered since last March risked melting away. The Mihava Tour having already caused a lot of expenditure in time, energy and finances, it is not obvious that Siteny has the desire and especially the means to lose this political investment. None of the other 10 candidates were in this situation.
The second reason is that, like it or not, there are two groups of candidates. On the one hand, the major candidates who have an already proven electoral base such as Marc Ravalomanana, Roland Ratsiraka, Hajo Andrianainarivelo, Hery Rajaonarimampianina and Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko. On the other hand, those who will be predestined to make zero commas or just a little more. Under these conditions, the major candidates who agree to merge indefinitely into the Collective of 11 candidates agreed to put themselves on a par with a Lalaina Ratsirahonana or a Jean-Jacques Ratsietison. With all respect, but also all the lucidity that we owe them.
The third reason is that while the Collective is walking from one end of the Capital to the other carrying cauliflowers, Andry Rajoelina continued his campaign and widened the gap on the ground. The 11 candidates therefore found themselves faced with a dilemma that we had already mentioned last Thursday: should we continue the policy of the empty chair in the electoral battle, or should we put ourselves in the starting blocks to prevent Rajoelina from taking the wide ? Siteny has made his decision.
In fact, the Collective’s decision to continue its discussions in parallel with its discussions with national and international mediators, on the one hand, and Siteny’s decision to go to the polls under current conditions, on the other hand, are both bets on the future. For the first, it is the hope that the international community will manage to bring Rajoelina and the clique he manipulates behind the scenes to clean up the High Constitutional Court (HCC) and the Independent National Electoral Commission. For the second, it is the hope that knowledge of the workings of the 2018 frauds will make it possible to effectively thwart plans for repeat offenses, and that the means implemented will do the rest. In any case, at the rate things are going, there is no great risk that the vote will take place on programs and projects, Andry Rajoelina having accustomed voters to promises paid in monkey money wrapped in concerts and distribution of goodies, and its competitors will be forced to follow suit.
However, a priori, both bets risk facing disappointments. The experience of recent months shows that the executive will stop at nothing to stay in power: arguments and methods to overthrow the President of the Senate, use of Predator software to spy on opponents, repression of peaceful demonstrations, use of undercover thugs. educated to provoke violence against the processions of the 11 candidates, Rajoelina’s candidacy validated by the HCC despite dual nationality, etc. We also recall that Prime Minister Ntsay has already earned his stripes as an “organizer” of elections in 2018, to the great joy of duplicates. It will therefore not be the flowering of cauliflowers on public roads, or the frowns of the international community, which will represent a serious obstacle. The current government is therefore capable of maintaining the election, whatever the number of candidates, and too bad for those who will boycott it. At least with Siteny’s entry into the running, we do not automatically risk a second round in the first round between Andry Rajoelina and Sendrison Daniela Raderanirina.
Siteny’s decision therefore amounts to a double or nothing decision. On the one hand, he runs the risk of seeing some of his support turn away from him, by conveying the image of a traitor or someone unreliable, in a country where the image of politicians is far away. to be honorable. But on the other hand, he has the opportunity to demonstrate that compared to the cauliflower walkers, he has the courage to go into battle. This can then attract a strong current of sympathy. On condition that he is able to professionalize all aspects of his propaganda for the three weeks of campaigning that remains to him, at least if the election is held on November 16.
#Sitenys #double #double