2024-09-22 02:11:44
On July 9, 2024, the anniversary was celebrated six months since the declaration of the internal armed conflict, the same amount of time since Ecuador saw on open television the takeover of a channel by members of a terrorist organization.
The Government assures that during this time there is a 17% reduction in intentional homicidesthe main indicator of violence. Interior Minister Mónica Palencia said that this figure corresponds to 621 fewer violent deaths in the first half of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.
However, the data is not entirely transparent and there is still no clarity on the plan that the Government is implementing in the fight against insecurity and organized crime, outside of that declaration.
Has declaring internal armed conflict yielded results?
With the decision of President Daniel Noboa to decree that in Ecuador there is a internal armed conflict, Criminal gangs were recognized as terrorist organizations and the Armed Forces (FF.AA.) as the entity that coordinates military operations to neutralize members of organized crime groups.
Initially, as it was applied at the same time as the state of emergency, the operations focused on arresting terrorist suspects and bringing them to justice.
As of April 2024, more than 18,000 arrests300 of them for the alleged crime of terrorism, it is not clear what type of crimes the rest are accused of, and the big question is how many have been brought to justice.
At first, the Government He kept a record of operations, arrests, confiscated weaponsetc., which was made public from time to time; then, once the state of emergency was over, the institutions stopped publishing that information.
On the other hand, according to the official version, there has been a decrease in intentional homicides so far this year, compared to the same period last year.
That information comes from the Ministry of the Interior and National Police, but It was not public for several months, approximately from October 2023 to May 2024. However, a few days ago, the portal for consulting figures was enabled.
Before that, lMinister Palencia made several inaccuracies when talking about the dataeven said that crime had been reduced by 99%.
He then rectified by talking about a decrease between 28 and 29%. Finally, the last figure he gave was 17%, saying that this corresponds to 621 fewer deaths. However, on the official portal the difference is only 516.
Renato Rivera, Director of the Ecuadorian Observatory of Organized Crimebelieves that one of the most important elements for democracy, in the context of violence, is transparency in information. He says that when the authorities do not explain why is there a decrease in cases or the methodology In the treatment of information, they run the risk of citizens doubting official figures and public policy.
Daniel Pontón, a professor at the School of Security and Defense of the Institute of Advanced National Studies, says that the government’s response has been reactive. That is, it focuses on containing crises. An example is when several violent deaths and attacks occurred in Manabí, the decision was to move the operations center of the Armed Forces and Police to that province, achieving more than 20 days without cases.
The expert does not doubt that this decision canto produce short-term results, however, he believes that the real problem and the possible solutions have to do with the institutionalization of the security system. In this sense, he is concerned that the military is occupying spaces for which they are not prepared, such as the prisons in the country.
Rivera agrees that decisions are reactive, as shown by the recurring states of exception, which are now applied in a targeted manner.
Other reasons behind the decrease in violent deaths
Katherine Herrera, an expert on public security and state issues, believes that part of the dynamics of the internal armed conflict involves the intervention of the public force in certain sectors, where crime actually decreases, although in practice, it only moves to other cantons.
Rivera also believes that There is a peace process between gangs. This means that there are minimal agreements between certain terrorist groups for their operation, which translates into a decrease in violent deaths. In other words, the results of the declaration of internal armed conflict may actually be examples of other dynamics of the criminal world.