2023-04-21 16:09:18
BSo far we can look back on a pleasing stock market year 2023. The German share index Dax has increased by 13 percent since the beginning of the year, as has the broader FAZ index. Who would have thought after the loss-making previous year that the Dax would still be within sight of the 16,000 mark in the spring?
According to Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp, the stock markets have recovered significantly in recent months, since the energy price shock triggered by the Ukraine war and the significant increase in key interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve have not yet led to a recession have led.
But after the strong start to the year, he warns against exuberance and expects price losses from May to September, since the sharp interest rate hikes should lead to disappointing economic and profit development in the second half of 2023.
Tesla stock price plummets
Shares in electric car manufacturer Tesla gave a foretaste of rougher times on Thursday, falling 10 percent on Wall Street. Investors punished the declining profit margin, which is also a result of CEO Elon Musk’s aggressive pricing policy. He has to fight price cuts to keep demand for Tesla vehicles.
The strategists at American asset manager Invesco are also assuming weaker growth and an uncertain environment for the second half of the year. In their view, the recent turbulence in the banking sector could slow down the already weakening economies even more by increasing risk aversion. Therefore, they recommend a more defensive asset allocation. They prefer government bonds to equities and currently consider cash holdings to be the most attractive option.
The experts at the British research house Oxford Economics are similarly skeptical. They expect the recent resilience in equities to weaken. They believe that hopes that the US Federal Reserve will soon turn around in terms of monetary policy towards lowering interest rates are exaggerated.
In addition, the Oxford analysts expect corporate profits to decline, which should weigh on share prices. They also point to the recent stress in the banking system, which suggests that lending will be more cautious and thus represents a further downside risk for the economy.
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