Sunspots are regions of the Sun’s surface where streams of electromagnetic radiation pass through the star’s magnetic field, creating relatively cool spots that appear black to us due to an optical illusion. Along with the size and frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections, the number of spots indicates the course of the Sun’s roughly 11-year cycle.
During the least active phase of the Sun (solar minimum), there are very few spots on the Sun – or sometimes none at all. For example, in 2019 at the end, just before the start of the current (25th) solar cycle, there were no visible spots on the Sun for 40 consecutive days.
In August, the surface of our home star averaged 215.5 spots per day, shows the Space Weather Forecast Center (SWPC), jointly managed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service. The last time such a high monthly number of spots in the Sun was in 2001. in September, during the 23rd Solar Maximum, when the average was 238.2.
The largest number of sunspots was recorded on August 8, when a total of 337 sunspots were observed on the Sun – the most in a 24-hour period since 2001. March
These numbers show what some scientists already suspected – that we have entered the solar maximum. But we can’t be sure of that until the number of spots on the Sun starts to decrease again.
When 2020 When the current solar cycle began, the SWPC team predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would be relatively weak—compared to previous cycles—similar to Solar Cycle 24, which peaked around 2014. and was the weakest high in about 90 years. For example, in 2024 for August, the predicted average number of sunspots was 107.8 – less than half the actual number just announced.
The SWPC forecast also indicated that the solar maximum would likely not be reached until 2025.
However, since the beginning of the current cycle, the number of sunspots has not matched original predictions. The numbers started to increase in 2022. at the beginning, and reached an eight-year high at the end of the year. Until 2023 June’s average number exceeded any month in the 24th solar cycle, and has been increasing ever since.
As a result, last October, the SWPC published a “Revised Solar Cycle 25 Forecast” which predicted that the solar maximum would likely be reached by 2024. middle and will be more active than expected.
The increasing number of sunspots is not the only sign that we are now experiencing solar maximum. At the beginning of May, the Earth was hit by the most powerful geomagnetic storm in more than 21 years, which colored an unusually large part of the planet’s sky with auroras. And just a few days later, our home star struck with a magnitude X8.7 solar flare, the most powerful solar flare since 2017.
The peak of solar activity can last anywhere from one to two years or more, so there is still a good chance that activity will continue to increase over the next 12 months or so.
If the Sun’s activity continues to increase and the Earth is bombarded by more powerful solar storms – similar to the one in 1859. The Carrington event can affect ground infrastructure, cause large-scale auroras at lower latitudes and damage space satellites, according to Live Science.
2024-09-05 03:52:29