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Tensions are rising in the Horn of Africa, along the same triangle that has already made the region falter: Ethiopia, Somalia and Egypt. The Ethiopian army has reportedly taken or intensified control of some airports in the Somali region of Gedo, on the border between the two states, with the aim of hindering the air transport of Egyptian soldiers after the expiry of the Atmis mission: the force of peacekeeping under the umbrella of the African Union, deployed in 2022 to contain al-Shabaab militants and destined to exit the scene by the end of 2024. According to local media reports, the troops intervened at the airports of Lugh, Dolo and Bardera: infrastructures already guarded by Ethiopian forces, even if now the explicit objective seems to be to prevent the landing of the Cairo contingent.
An agreement signed between Mogadishu and the Egyptian authorities establishes the allocation of 5,000 soldiers in a new mission under the umbrella of the African Union, the organization that brings together the 55 countries of the continent, in addition to the 5,000 men provided for by a bilateral agreement. Addis Ababa rejects the agreement and is trying to mobilize other regional actors against the “interferences” attributed to Egypt, worsening the accumulation of tensions in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia and Somalia are at odds after the announcement of a memorandum of understanding between Addis Ababa and the rebels of Somaliland, an agreement that includes the recognition of the autonomous region. Ethiopia itself is at loggerheads with Egypt over disagreements over the so-called Renaissance Dam, the mega-infrastructure wanted by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and contested by Cairo for the “theft” of the Nile’s water resources. Addis Ababa has declared that Egypt is “only interested in perpetuating its monopoly” on the river, a closure that speaks against negotiations that have already foundered in various negotiating flops.
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The already growing nervousness can only be exacerbated by the latest outburst in Addis Ababa. Somalia had asked the Ethiopian authorities to withdraw the troops currently serving Atmis, a contingent of about 3,000 men that should have left the scene with the expiration of the mission at the end of 2024. Mogadishu insisted on their removal more than a quarter early, a disagreement accentuated by the delivery of Egyptian weapons supplied to its army.
The dispatch of new Ethiopian troops to the border between the two countries is a far from accommodating response, with repercussions both on relations with Mogadishu and on the even more tumultuous ones with al-Sisi’s Egypt. In the first case, ties were strained with the agreement granted to Somaliland, in turn the result of Abiy’s expansionist ambitions: at the heart of the agreement is access to a 20-kilometer portion of coast, essential for access to the sea claimed as a “right” by the prime minister. Things are no better on the diplomatic crisis with Egypt, given the head-on clash between the economic ambitions answered by Abiy on the dam and Egypt’s controversies on the “threats” to its own economic subsistence.