Vadim Skibitsky: Putin will mobilize another 500,000 men but has equipment problems. And he only has 90 Iskander missiles
FROM OUR REPORTER
KIEV – There could be a new attack today or tomorrow. Temperatures are dropping. And some days the Russians don’t attack our infrastructure. Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, opens a file. the last report I received, he tells al Courier sitting in an office in Kiev, near the bank of the Dnipro.
So could the Russians attack again as soon as the so-called unilateral truce ended (ended last night, ed)?
Of course we expect it. We know very well what their ceasefires are, it was the same in 2014. They mean nothing. It’s just propaganda. Putin is only trying to test the reaction of the Ukrainians and the international community. And they are preparing new bombings, we have information about this. We do not exclude that there will be a new attack at the end of this holiday.
In recent days, you yourself publicly stated that the Russians have problems with ballistic refueling and are decreasing their firepower…
Yes, before New Year’s in raids the Russians used only 20 missiles. In October they dropped 70-80. They are also now using a mix of missiles that they launch from the air and from the sea, along with drones. We also know that they only have 90 Iskanders left. They have problems with the production of these weapons. And they also decreased the frequency of bombings. But still dangerous. Surely they will still try to hit our energy infrastructure. Temperatures are expected to drop between today and tomorrow. And they try to leave the population of all of Ukraine without electricity especially at these times, when it’s coldest.
You also discovered that the Iranian drones used by the Russians contain foreign, especially US, components. How is it possible?
They use two types of Iranian drones. The Mohajer-6, and the Shahed the problem that are now manufactured with elements and components that come from different countries, such as the United States and Japan and from many European countries, including Austria for example, perhaps even Italy. They are very well made drones, especially the Mohajers look like the Bayraktar (Turks, ed). These are components that can be easily purchased on the open market. And easily assembled. We have reported this problem to all the countries involved, asking them not to sell these components anymore, also given the sanctions.
On New Year’s Eve, hundreds of Russian soldiers died in Makiivka after a Ukrainian raid. Do you expect an answer?
Makiivka part of our counteroffensive that started in August, and there will be more: it is part of the plan to avoid another Russian offensive. It was a big loss for them. It’s hard to say what consequences it will have but we’ll see. Certainly a message to all Russian soldiers forced to fight, a sign to them. This happens to those who are sent to the front by Putin. And from the generals who make such a stupid decision by concentrating so many people in one place. In the last two weeks the Russians have moved many men not only to the East but also in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kherson they have been moved by trains and planes, from Rostov and from another region bordering Ukraine.
What does it mean?
They are preparing a new wave of soldier mobilization. And to this end, the laws on recruitment are changing. But they are also acting economically to try to increase the production of weapons. Another proof is the propaganda: the videos and letters to the wives of the soldiers at the front show how Putin is trying to convince the population that it is right to go and fight. We believe there will be full mobilization in Russia soon. Putin needs more soldiers on the frontline. We believe they will mobilize 500,000 men. But the problem will be the equipment.
Where could the new offensive come from?
We see an increase in pressure in the Donetsk region. Since February one of the objectives was the complete occupation of this region together with that of Lugansk. So far they have failed. They will probably launch a new offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. And in the Kharkiv direction to stop our counteroffensive. And they will try to hold positions in Kherson, where defenses are being increased, as well as in the Crimean peninsula, which is particularly strategic for them. In the north we have no evidence of the creation of an assault group in Belarus or movement of troops. Belarus will probably be used mostly as a base for troop reorganization. But at the moment Russia does not have enough troops for a new offensive from the north.
When will the new attacks in these sectors start?
We expect an increase in intensity between spring and summer. Now it is not easy for them to move their troops given the terrain conditions.
On the southern front, what will be your next objective? Melitopol?
Our goal remains to liberate all occupied territories and bring them back to pre-1991 borders. So yes, of course, Melitopol too.
Will 2023 be the year of peace?
We will try to do everything possible to bring the war to an end this year. It also depends on how things go economically in Russia and whether the economic pressure remains high. And that the support of the international community for Ukraine remains so, with an increasingly isolated Russia.
For the first time a metropolitan of Kiev celebrated the Mass of Orthodox Christmas in one of the monasteries symbol of Ukrainian Orthodoxy faithful to Moscow, that of the caves of Kiev. What does this mean?
The percentage of the Ukrainian population that follows the Orthodox Church loyal to Moscow in Ukraine is very low. In 2014 it was higher but now lower. By now people have understood what the faithful monasteries do in Moscow, they hide their weapons, spies, spread propaganda.
How has your daily life changed since the invasion started?
Paradoxically it’s easier now. I know who my enemy is and where the threat is coming from. I know it and my three sons at the front know it. What has suffered the most is my labrador dog who is afraid every time the sirens sound.
January 8, 2023 (change January 8, 2023 | 07:29)
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