It is not yet war, but the escalation of tensions between North Korea and South Korea threatens to provoke one of the most serious military crises on the Korean peninsula in decades. The two Koreas exchanged fire on Wednesday, November 2: Pyongyang first fired 17 missiles, including one that fell near South Korean territorial waters, leading Seoul to retaliate by launching three missiles towards the sea. South Korean, Yoon Suk-yeol, denounced a “de facto territorial invasion”. In response, North Korea fired around 100 artillery rounds near South Korean territorial waters.
North Korea, “main enemy”
Six months after taking office, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, 61, narrowly elected on a very conservative platform, is facing his most serious military crisis with his North Korean neighbor. Barely elected, this notorious warmonger had announced the color by qualifying North Korea as “main enemy” from South Korea. A hard line which had already irritated Pyongyang at the time.
For five years, his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, pursued a policy of dialogue with Pyongyang which eased tensions without leading to any peace treaty or the denuclearization of North Korea. For curator Yoon Suk-yeol, this approach « servile » resulted in a clear failure.
The risks of clashes between the two Koreas intensify
The South Korean called Kim Jong-un a “rude boy” and had promised that once in power he would make the leader of the North behave in a way ” adult “, saying he is ready for a preemptive strike against North Korea ” if necessary “. We’re not there yet, but Yoon Suk-yeol’s martial rhetoric confirms his tough approach to the northern neighbor.
In the face of the latest North Korean missile launches, the president “stressed that the North Korean provocation is a de facto territorial invasion by a missile that crossed the Northern Limit Line for the first time since the division of the peninsula, after the Korean War in 1953, the South Korean military reported.
While the nation is in mourning after the Halloween drama in Itaewon last Saturday which killed 156 people, this military crisis risks overshadowing the mismanagement of this tragedy by the government of Yoon Suk-yeol, in free fall in the polls (less than 30% favorable opinions). Unlike previous missile launches which had become “commonplace”, the South Koreans this time reacted with more concern, but the memory of the Halloween drama will not be erased so easily.
Russia calls for “calm”
After Wednesday’s shootings, President Yoon called a meeting of the National Security Council and further ordered measures “quick and severe so that North Korea pays a high price for its provocations”. Without specifying which ones. But many observers do not imagine the new president wanting to ease tensions. Russia called ” quiet “, but the peninsula’s missile crisis is taking a worrying turn.
“The danger of armed clashes between the two Koreas is growing», does not hesitate to affirm Cheong Seong-Chang, North Korea specialist at the Sejong Institute in Seoul. For him, South Korea must bring a “controlled response” to North Korean provocations and “not to respond in an extreme way”, in order to avoid a spiral of violence which could spin out of control and push “Pyongyang to use its tactical nuclear weapons”.
—–
Since January 2022, 54 missiles fired by Pyongyang
24 mars : after a dozen test firings including hypersonic missiles and a “surface-to-surface ballistic missile”, Pyongyang proceeds to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Mi-avril: Kim Jong-un supervises the test firing of a new weapon system.
May 25: North Korea fires three missiles, including an ICBM.
June 5: Pyongyang launches eight short-range ballistic missiles.
October 4: North Korea fires an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flies over Japan.
November 2: North Korea launches at least 23 ballistic missiles, one of which lands near South Korean territorial waters.