2023-11-11 01:03:26
Without differentiating itself from the last few, this week ends with the soybean market still very attentive to the tumultuous development of Brazil’s 2023/24 harvest. The effects on prices still do not have the same intensity as the problems that are accumulating in the field, however, they should happen, according to analysts and market consultants. More than the actual size of the current Brazilian harvest, the most awaited question now – and throughout this season – is how much soybeans Brazil will stop offering to the market due to losses caused by the climate.
“I don’t believe there is any longer a line of thought that says there won’t be a reduction in soybean production based on USDA and Conab projections,” says market consultant Aaron Edwards, market consultant at Roach Ag Marketing, in interview with Notícias Agrícolas this Friday (10). Both institutions, both the United States Department of Agriculture and Conab, estimated the Brazilian harvest, this Thursday (9), at 163 and 162.4 million tons, respectively.
The cuts in numbers have not yet come, as was already expected by experts, but they should come. As Edwards explained, there is no longer anyone on the market who does not bet on a failure in Brazil’s current harvest, however, the real size of the losses is still quite difficult to estimate. There are regions of Mato Grosso where producers already report the need for a second replanting. Sowing in the state, the largest oilseed producer in Brazil, remains significantly delayed and a concern.
“This is the biggest delay in the historical series of five years, but what most worries our producer, us in the field, is the condition of the crops already sown. High temperatures, places without rain reaching 20, 25 days, which has compromised and the development of crops, causing losses in the future”, says the president of Aprosoja MT, Fernando Cadore. Direct from China, where the institution discussed and negotiates infrastructure issues with the Asian nation, Cadore also highlighted the needs for replanting and the difficulty of measuring the problems at this time.
“Aprosoja Mato Grosso is very concerned, bringing these reports from the base, and we will continue monitoring in the field, with our supervisors distributed throughout the state, with the delegates, to continue reporting and informing these farming conditions. Obviously this brings a lot of concern, a lot of anguish, since development is complex and the producer is uncertain and insecure about his own commercialization”, adds the president of Aprosoja MT.
Data reported by Imea (Mato-Grossense Institute of Agricultural Economics) this Friday indicates that soybean planting in the state reached 91.82% of the area, still showing delays. Last year, in this same period, fieldwork was 96.17% completed and the average for the last five years is 95.51%.
When evaluating conditions across the country, the delay becomes even more evident. National planting reached 61.28% of the area allocated to soybeans, compared to 73.44% in 2022, in the same period, and compared to the 70.67% average of the last five years, according to data from Pátria Agronegócios reported also this Friday. The consultancy highlighted the suspension of sowing in more states besides Mato Grosso due to the dry weather.
“Reports of planting interruptions were noted in Goiás, Tocantins, Rondônia, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo. In Mato Grosso, reports of replanting are already becoming common in several parts of the state”, say Pátria analysts.
The 2023/24 harvest is shaped like a true patchwork quilt. There are reports of all kinds, crops in all conditions and an immense cloud of uncertainty about the real size of the Brazilian harvest. The excess humidity in the South, which worsens with each new forecast indicating more storms for the region, keeps the fields soggy and planting cannot be carried out. Of what has already been planted, especially summer corn, many losses have already accumulated.
“We have a lot of cases of tipping here in the northwest region of Rio Grande do Sul due to the high rainfall in recent months. A combo, leafhopper and bacteriosis”, reports Marcos Moura, rural producer in São Valério do Sul. “The month of October had 950 mm of rain, it caught some areas right when the corn was flowering. We are monitoring these cases to see how the plants will behave with these upcoming rains.”
Photos: Marcos Moura
In the Cerro Negro/SC region, the situation is similar. “Soybeans are emerging and planting is halted in the locality due to the rain. We are already a month late here. In the Serra Catarinense and Midwest regions. In fact, if it continues to rain a lot and without electricity, we will have to replant the little we have already planted”, informs Marcos Mateus Mota, local producer.
Photos: Marcos Mateus Mota
In Mato Grosso, in the Rio Brilhante region, the reports are less worrying and the images are more encouraging, with soybeans already advanced and in better conditions.
Photos: João da Silva
In the state of São Paulo, in Tupã, planting is also progressing. The images are by Eduardo Shigueru. However, sowing in São Paulo, according to Pátria data, is also delayed, being completed at 75.2%, compared to 84.8% last year.
Photos: Eduardo Shigueru
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