2024-09-16 16:31:24
Spanish companies expect a return in their turnover at the end of 2024. As well as a relief in inflationary pressures and a reduction in sales prices in the next 12 months, as specified by the Bank of Spain in its Survey of Business Activity (EBAE). which corresponds to the third quarter. Companies report a fall in sales since July, after the increase recorded in the last report. The fall, which is seasonal, is less than that observed in the same period of the previous two years. The report also states that economic policy uncertainty, labor shortages and energy costs are the main concerns for the business sector.
Specifically, 29.4% of the 6,200 companies surveyed saw their sales decline during the third quarter, nine points more than in June. Meanwhile, the percentage of companies that perceive increases fell by seven points, to 25.4%. However, the monetary entity points out in its report that this indicator “shows significant seasonal behavior, with falls in billing in the third quarter of the year.” Despite the reduction, the prospects for the fourth quarter of the year are still positive and show an increase in income.
The boom in tourism was felt during the summer season. The hospitality industry, along with other service branches, such as administrative activities and transportation, stand out among those experiencing the largest increases in billings in the third quarter. At the other end of the scale, the agricultural sector and commerce are not raising their heads. They have posted ten and eleven consecutive quarters of decline, respectively.
The employment level results coincide with the sales results. The companies surveyed declare reductions in employment, compared to the progress of the previous quarter. The participants who perceive an increase were reduced by three percentage points, to 15.5%. The slight improvement in employment in hospitality, transport, leisure and administration activities stands out, in contrast to the decline in the agricultural sector and real estate services. But, as is the case with billing, optimism is widespread and companies predict an increase in occupancy for the final months of the year.
The report shows that the outlook for labor costs remains “fairly stable”, in contrast to INE data from the first half of the year. 68% of the companies consulted predict cost growth within a year, a percentage similar to that reported in the last review. The Bank of Spain emphasizes that “usually the branches where more labor problems are observed are those that expect greater increases in their labor costs in the coming year.” The most obvious examples are hospitality, construction and agriculture.
Reduction of inflationary pressures and prices
Business people felt the slowdown in inflation reported by the National Institute of Statistics last Thursday. The Consumer Price Index closed August at 2.3%, the lowest rate of the year. The decrease in the indicator that measures the evolution of intermediate consumption costs has exceeded the expectations of those surveyed in June. The percentage of respondents who say they have increased fell to 35.8%, more than ten points less than the previous quarter. However, companies predict slightly higher cost pressures towards the end of the year.
Sales prices also decreased, according to businessmen. Only 17.7% of those surveyed reported increasing the amounts, seven points less than in the last survey. In the long term, the percentage of companies expecting to make their products more expensive in the next 12 months is reduced to 46.5%, two points less than three months ago, with similar figures in both industry and services.
Factors that put activity at risk
Uncertainty about economic policy is the main conditioning factor for business activity. The percentage of companies that have been negatively affected stands at 47%. It leads events, despite reported declines for the third quarter in a row. Meanwhile, there is growing concern about labor shortages. It is a view shared by 42.8% of the societies, almost two points more than three months ago. The increase in energy costs continues to have a negative impact on 42% of those surveyed, and is two points higher than the last review.
In addition, there is a slight increase in the frequency of lack of demand as a factor inhibiting activity, while the influence of financial factors is decreasing.
#Spanish #companies #predict #increase #sales #Bank #Spain #Economy