The Spanish economy will experience a “significant slowdown“, going from a 5.5% growth in 2022 to be around 1% in 2023. However, “there are no obvious risks of recession”, that is, of chaining together two quarters with negative results. They are the main conclusions of theEconomic and Financial Report of Esade of the first semester of the year, which was announced this Monday. The main risks for the Spanish economy are the high indebtedness that day rise in the cost of debt service, as well as “the lack of ambition in the field of structural reforms in an election year”, reports the report. However, the study points out that the forecasts for Spain are better than those of the main European economies.
The reasons that explain this better behavior are the lower exposure to the Russian and Ukrainian economy and some implemented policies, such as the Iberian exception to the electricity market and the gas cap.
The report highlights that Spanish GDP growth in 2023, expected to be 1%, will depend on the behavior of energy prices, the evolution of inflation and the decisions taken by the European Central Bank in relation to to interest rates. It will also be “determining” the functioning of the labor market, which could have reached “the potential level of employment”.
According to the authors, overexposure to fiscal stimulus in recent months, with policies such as the Next Generation EU fund, increases in pensions or the Interprofessional Minimum Wage, “could slow down the deflation process started at the end of last year”.
By sector, construction will face a year of “significant opportunities”, thanks to investments boosted by the Next Generation EU funds, while forecasts for the services sector, although they also remain relatively optimistic, are more uncertain due to the evolution of consumption.
In terms of industry, however, “uncertainty will be high due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes to combat the climate emergency and consolidate industrial autonomy.
In relation to banking, on a global scale, this will be a year of weak economic growth due to the tightening of financial conditions.
In this 2023, global growth is expected to be around 2.9%, with a more obvious slowdown in the case of advanced economies: the United States (1.4%), the euro zone (0.7%) and Japan ( 1.8%). China’s growth will rise moderately to 5.2%.