Historical poll shock for Armin Laschet (60, CDU)!
In the current Forsa survey for RTL / ntv, the SPD (23 percent) overtook the Union (22 percent) – for the first time in a survey by this institute in 15 years! According to Forsa, the Social Democrats were last ahead of the CDU / CSU in November 2006. The big winner: SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz (63)! For him, the Chancellery now seems to be within reach.
Compared to the previous week, the SPD has gained 2 percentage points, the Union has dropped another point. The CDU / CSU fall to their lowest poll number since 1984! In mid-July, approval for the Union was twice as high as for the SPD, with 30 to 15 percent it seemed unattainable ahead.
► Greens currently come to 18 percent, thus losing one point. As recently as April, Baerbock and the Greens believed that they were on course for the Chancellery with 26 percent approval.
► FDP (12 percent), Left (6 percent) and AfD (10 percent) are stagnating in favor of the voters. Other parties would vote 9 percent.
Only tripartite alliances are possible
Accordingly, neither an alliance of the Greens and the Union (40 percent) nor a grand coalition of the SPD and the Union (45 percent) is currently possible. The threshold for a majority in parliament is 45.5 percent. A Jamaica coalition of the Union, Greens and FDP (52 percent) or a German coalition of Union, SPD and FDP (57 percent) could rule.
A majority capable of governing would also have a traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP (53 percent). A rather narrow majority in parliament would also have a red-red-green alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left (47 percent).
And: According to the survey, only 29 percent of CDU supporters believe that NRW Prime Minister and Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (60, CDU) will still be able to curve up to the federal election.
In the INSA opinion trend for BILD on Monday, the Union and the SPD were still tied, both got 23 percent of the vote. The Greens came to 17 percent, the FDP to 13, the Left to 7 percent. The AfD stagnated at 11 percent.