On April 1, 65, Dr. Sant Srianthamrong, Special Lecturer, Faculty of Environmental Development Administration University of Development Administration (NIDA) posted a message via Facebook on the issue of Covid-19: Wave#5 Omicron moving forward to Songkran. Get ready to receive India Model. Fight in pain for a long time to finish. with the following content:
Three months have passed in Omicron’s Wave#5, a question in many people’s minds.
1. I think I’ve come down 2 times, but why haven’t I reached the peak yet?
2. How many people are actually infected per day? Many people around him are continually infected.
3. When will it end? When will I get a local disease?
4. How to survive
I have the answer from calculations and projections
Summary of past situations And It’s Going: Past & Present
1. Wave#5 has been an uptrend since Jan 1, but the RT-PCR test is low, so the number doesn’t go up at all, can’t see it completely, can’t control the disease. The wave’s tail was so long that it didn’t end until now.
2. ATK began to decrease greatly. The total number that has been returned to stabilize, but did not continue to decline, despite the continued upward trend
3. Chonburi is very diligent to inspect. A single province has found a total of PCR+ATK almost 10,000 a day. If you are diligent like this, every province The number across the country should have crossed hundreds of thousands.
4. Those who can’t detect and refuse to check will be a worker ant infecting them all the time. causing Thailand to gradually move forward into the India Model of Herd Immunity, which ends in a sacrificial life. Many countries are like this.
Numbers and graphs:
Bangkok:
1. The %Increase chart of RT-PCR is a slow downtrend at an 84-day Time Constant, which is too slow.
2. The cumulative infected person graph will not reach the saturation point in the next 4 months.
3. We’ll see RT-PCR levels of 3,000 per day for a long time to come. and may be elevated after Songkran
4. Real infected people in Bangkok. Based on the 0.4% exaggerated mortality rate, compared to Singapore’s 0.05 – 0.1%, the actual daily number of infections in Bangkok should be between 10,000 – 30,000.
5. If Bangkok does not finish, other provinces will continue to recur.
Thailand: Present & Future
1. The %Increase chart of RT-PCR is a slow downtrend at a time constant of 65 days.
2. The cumulative infected person graph will not reach the saturation point in the next 4 months.
3. We will see daily RT-PCR numbers above 20,000 at least until June 15 and remain above 10,000 until Aug. 1, but the numbers could be elevated after Songkran and worse. If the booster injection is not enough
4. The %Increase curve of RT-PCR+ATK decreased with no apparent cause 3 weeks ago. Probably due to a much lower examination
5. Daily Case RT-PCR+ATK If calculated based on the same trend line today 31/3/2022, the number of infected people is likely to be around 130,000 per day, not the 40,000-50,000 as detected.
6. Mortality rate If calculating from the RT-PCR+ATK curve base of 130,000 people, a 19-day delay will be calculated. The mortality rate is 0.12%, consistent with the actual vaccine level and the same as abroad.
7. The mortality rate began to decrease from the 0.2% level to near the 0.1% line, if the booster injection was increased, it could be reduced by up to 0.05%, which would cause death. In the worst case, no more than 200 people per day.
8. Infection continues to increase rapidly due to low testing. It may reach the level of 500,000 people per day by the end of May, but we will never be able to prove this fact.
9. If enough vaccinations, RT-PCR numbers for people who need to be hospitalized. It is as low as 2% of all infected people. Actually 500,000 RT-PCR can be as low as 10,000 per day.
10. If You Can’t Control We will infect 70% of the population and have Herd Immunity in July-Aug 2022 and the infection will decrease rapidly. but at the cost of 20,000 – 40,000 deaths
India Model: Good News and Bad News
good news:
Herd Immunity was born, just passed the festival of colors without any new waves. Omicron can actually end it.
Bad news:
521,159 reported deaths, the real figure from Excess Death is probably 7 million.
43,024,440 reported infections, the real number may have reached a billion.
The average age of the population is 28 years old, 12 years younger than Thailand. Still hurting this much.
Conclusion and alternatives:
1. In Thailand, we now check for fewer infections. The disease can’t be controlled. It should go to Herd Immunity like India, mixed with vaccination for low mortality.
2. There may be a Herd Immunity in the next 4 months. Those who love health, please be patient to be the last 30% that may survive the infection. or at least low risk
3. Success in slowing the epidemic and accelerating the booster injection in the past, causing the death to be around 20,000 -40,000 people, much less than the case of slow injection at 1-2 hundred thousand people.
4. 3 types of people who love health, ask them to be patient for another 4 months. Those who can’t be patient, go get all vaccinations. and accept the risk People refuse to vaccinate and can’t stand it. will be 10 to 40 times more likely to die than others
We are in this Wave Omicron that everyone likes to say it will be short. Up faster and faster, but 3 months time has proven that Wave won’t go down if the disease is not seriously controlled. Not vaccinating well and enough Not following any rules and live together with complete carelessness But anyway, it’s past. It’s too late to fix it or go back to Lockdown. Everything must move on. If there are no more new species coming, it will be over in the next 3-4 months. Each person will be able to choose a different ending method. At this moment, everything will be natural. who is strong Those who survive, those who are fortunate will survive. But if you don’t want to have a lot of luck I went to complete vaccinations. then take care of your health
P.S. The end of that There are probably tens of thousands of people infected every day. dozens of deaths a day Each year, COVID causes tens of thousands of deaths, second only to cancer. But the vast majority of our lives will go back to normal. But you have to remember to live with it.