Title: Turkey’s Objections and Hungary’s Stall Raise Doubts Over Sweden’s NATO Membership
Introduction:
NATO leaders had hoped to welcome Sweden as the alliance’s newest member at their annual summit, but the process has been drawn out due to stalling by Hungary and continued objections from President Erdogan of Turkey. The split over Sweden has raised concerns about NATO’s ability to project a united front against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces as they fight back against a Ukrainian counteroffensive. With all 31 member states needing to agree on new memberships, the outcome remains uncertain, and a failure to reach an agreement could dent the alliance’s credibility.
Stoltenberg’s Efforts to Convince Turkey:
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Turkish, Swedish, and Finnish officials in Brussels to convince Turkey that Sweden has done enough to overcome their objections. Stoltenberg emphasized the progress made and expressed the hope that all leaders would agree to let Sweden join at the upcoming summit, followed by parliamentary approval.
Hungary’s Position and Erdogan’s Decision:
Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, stated that if Turkey’s position changed, Hungary would not obstruct the process. The ball is now in President Erdogan’s court, and the outcome of next week’s summit will depend on his decision. A failure to reach an agreement could prolong Sweden’s membership process, giving a symbolic victory to Putin and a loss to the alliance.
Stoltenberg’s Argument and Biden’s Support:
Stoltenberg argued that Sweden’s involvement in NATO meetings and military exercises demonstrated their readiness for membership. However, Sweden would be outside the commitment to collective defense, which is a core purpose of the alliance. President Biden reiterated US support for Swedish membership during a meeting with Prime Minister Kristersson in Washington, stressing that it would make the alliance stronger.
Complexities in Sweden’s Ascension:
Issues surrounding weapons agreements, terrorism, and freedom of expression have complicated Sweden’s ascension to NATO. Turkey accused Sweden of providing a safe haven for Turkish dissidents and demanded changes to counterterrorism laws. Sweden made constitutional amendments and agreed to extradite certain individuals to meet Turkish demands.
Erdogan’s Red Lines:
Erdogan’s objections to Sweden joining NATO stem from his concern about combatting terrorism and Islamophobia. His stance has not changed despite winning a third term as president. A recent incident involving the burning of a Quran in Stockholm led Erdogan to accuse Sweden of failing to combat Islamophobia, further frustrating NATO officials.
Potential Breakthroughs and Biden’s Push:
Paths to a breakthrough include Sweden meeting Turkey’s demands further, NATO members offering “sweeteners” to Turkey, or a thaw in Erdogan’s relationship with President Biden. The Biden administration has been pushing for NATO expansion but has rejected the idea of pressuring Turkey on NATO expansion in exchange for a weapons deal.
Congressional Resistance:
Resistance to Turkey’s F-16 fighter jets deal has been growing in Congress, with influential members expressing opposition until Sweden’s membership process is resolved. Senator Mitch McConnell and Senator Robert Menendez have both stated their objections to the sale, adding further hurdles to the deal.
Conclusion:
The outcome of Sweden’s NATO membership remains uncertain as Hungary stalls and Turkey continues to object. The delay risks denting NATO’s ability to project unity against Russia, and a failure to reach an agreement could be seen as a symbolic victory for Putin. Efforts to convince Turkey and Hungary are ongoing, but the final decision lies with President Erdogan.