2024-02-20 06:00:23
Trade review: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations
07:58
1. The stock markets
The trading day is expected to open this morning with a mixed trend. Yesterday (Monday) the Tel Aviv 35 index rose by 1.3% and the Tel Aviv 90 index by about 0.6%. Among the industry indexes, construction stocks jumped by about 2%. The bank index jumped by about 1.7%. On the other hand, the insurance index lost its value by 0.4%.
Group share Hajj Zinka jumped on the background of the company’s announcement that it is significantly increasing its activity in the field of urban renewal. The group enters as a partner in Zim Bahari, initially holding 30% of Zim Bahari’s shares, while jointly controlling the company, as well as receiving an option to increase the holding to 50%.
The turmoil in the board of directors of the Migdal insurance group, controlled by Shlomo Eliyahu, continues. Yesterday (Monday) the company’s board of directors decided not to renew the terms of office of two directors – Aryeh Mintakevich and Carmi Gilon (former head of the Shin Bet). Also: the proposal to oust director Merav Ben Canaan Heller was rejected, chairman Barnea asked for a few days to discuss the issue In front of the Capital Market Authority.
The group that won the huge tender for the construction of the ‘Scenic’ light rail was selected: a group consisting of the companies Alstom, Electra And Manerev, won yesterday (Monday) a tender by the Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety and the Chutz Israel Company in the international tender for the construction and operation of the light rail that will connect Haifa to the Galilee and Nazareth.
Aret Industries Yesterday (Monday) received an order from the Ministry of Defense for the supply of 23 million NIS from the Ministry of Defense. The company also reports that its order backlog amounts to approximately NIS 215 million.
● Questions and answers | The stock index of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that left dust for Nasdaq and the S&P 500
Despite the interest rate cut in China, trading in Asia is mostly down this morning, the Nikkei is down 0.3%, the Shanghai index is now trading unchanged, the Hang Seng index is down 0.3% and the South Korean Kospi is down 1.3%.
● Interview | The investment manager who saw the dot.com bubble up close continues to recommend tech stocks
Ahead of the start of the shortened trading week in New York, Wall Street futures are now trading lower. The Nasdaq is down 0.8%, the Dow Jones is down 0.3% and the S&P 500 is down 0.5%.
Yesterday, President’s Day in the USA, there was no trading on Wall Street. Last Friday, the Wall Street stock exchanges closed with price decreases. The Dow Jones index fell by about 0.4%, the S&P 500 index closed with decreases of about 0.5% and the Nasdaq at 0.8%
In the credit card market, a huge deal was forged between two of the largest credit card companies in the US whenCapital One Financial you purchase the Discover Financial Services. Capital One is the ninth largest bank in the US.
Nvidia , will publish its results for the fourth quarter on Wednesday after trading and will shed light on the field of chips for the AI industry, expectations from it are a profit of 4.63 per share and revenues of 20.52 billion dollars, in the last four quarters the company has exceeded expectations. In the retail sector they will report this week Walmart andHome Depot .
● Nvidia’s stardust: one report was enough for the chip company to jump a line of shares
2. The bond markets
In the local debt market, the corporate bond indices were locked around base levels. The Tel Gov Shekel 10+ index closed with gains of about 0.4%.
In the American debt market, last week there was an increase in government bond yields, the 10-year bond is trading this morning at 4.29%.
3. The commodity and currency markets
The local foreign exchange market, the shekel has weakened slightly against the foreign currencies. The dollar rate is 3.62 shekels to the dollar and the euro rate is 3.90 shekels to the euro.
Oil prices are trading this morning without significant change and a Brent barrel is trading at $83.5, US oil at $79.
Citigroup anticipates the possibility that gold and oil prices may soar to $3,000 per ounce and $100 per barrel respectively within 12-18 months. “Gold, which is now trading at $2,016, could rise by 50% due to massive purchases by central banks or because of a global recession,” said Akash Dubey, head of commodities at Citi.
Regarding oil, Citi expects its price to rise due to the political tensions, disruptions in the supply chain and the tightening policy of OPEC+. “But mainly because of the influence of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.”
4. Macro
Yesterday, the Central Bureau of Statistics published the growth figures for the Israeli economy – comparing quarters, the fourth quarter, in which the war broke out in the south, led to a drop in GDP figures and presented an almost 20% drop in growth.
Yoni Penning, chief transaction strategist in the trading room of Bank Mizrahi Tefahot is reassuring: “GDP shrank in the fourth quarter by 19.4% – in the pessimistic part of the analysts’ expectations, but despite the scary headline, let’s remember that this is actually a figure in annual terms. That is, where would the GDP reach if For four quarters we would have seen a contraction like today. The reduction in GDP itself, compared to the level of economic activity in the third quarter of 2023, is on the order of 5%.”
“In addition to being a moderate figure in itself, certainly in relation to a time of war, it also reflects a product similar, still, to the initial expectations of the public sector, and some of the international rating bodies, to the effect of the war on the product in this quarter. Beyond that, we would add that to a large extent the current product figure is based on Data from the beginning of the quarter”.
“The level of local activity, we will remind, continued to recover in December, with a reduction in rocket attacks on the country. In our estimation, we will see this reflected significantly in the update of the local GDP data, next month.”
“Despite the indications from the GDP, the markets still express confidence in the Israeli economy, with the shekel continuing to show a slight strengthening and moving slightly higher than the level of NIS 3.60.”
China lowered the interest rate – The Central Bank of China lowered the interest rate on five-year loans tonight, for the first time since June last year. The Chinese government hopes to revive the real estate market in the country. The five-year interest rate, which is used there for taking out mortgages, fell by 25 basis points to 3.95%, more than the expectation of a drop of 15 basis points.
Canada will publish the consumer price index today, on Wednesday the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision will be published, and on Thursday the number of new job seekers in the economy. On Wednesday, the purchasing managers’ indices for the month of February in Europe, Great Britain and Japan will be published.
5. Forecast
At Goldman Sachs they published an optimistic forecast regarding the S&P 500 index, at the bank contracts that it will rise to a rate of 5,200 by the end of the year, the main reason according to Goldman Sachs is the increase in the companies’ profits, David Kostin, an analyst at the company raised his forecast from the previous one which stood at 5,100, two months ago, we updated at Goldman the forecast from 4,700.
The investment house noted that the “Magnificent Seven” that drove most of the recent increases in the index remain strong. The analysts expect that the companies in the information technology and communication services sectors will continue to provide better performance than companies in the other sectors.
● Bank of America estimates: these are the stocks that will jump by dozens of percent this year
Also according to the review of David Benjaminov, a research analyst at Global X, the stock market is not yet overbought – “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the S&P500 is now at 65, with a level of 70 and above indicating overbought. Crossing of the 70 level may give the signal for a period of correction”.
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