2023-10-15 03:04:08
The round of conversations that Pedro Sánchez has carried out with the parties with parliamentary representation during this week has left a clear image: the PSOE’s aspirations for an immediate investiture after the failed attempt by Albert Núñez Feijóo have been made impossible by reality. Already in the last two weeks, the optimistic scenario of holding an investiture plenary session in mid-October had begun to cool from the socialist ranks and, once the round of talks was concluded, it has been certified that, at a minimum, the negotiations were They will extend three more weeks. No one specifies a date either because the scenario is very volatile and everything can change, although there is a maximum deadline to avoid an electoral repetition: November 27.
Sánchez has already publicly taken steps that suggest that he will accept the amnesty, but it does not seem that this declaration of intentions has managed to soften either ERC or Junts. Probably, those steps that the socialist candidate has taken, delivering the measure of grace so easily, have been interpreted as a gesture of weakness on the part of the PSOE and the pro-independence parties want to take advantage of it to extract more profits: in fact, the reading that Gabriel Rufián made in the meeting room press after meeting with Sánchez in Congress it became clear that within a few years the PSOE will also “change its mind” and will stop considering the referendum as unconstitutional (something that has happened with the amnesty).
Both Junts and ERC compete to see who extracts the most benefits from a negotiation with the PSOE and, in addition to the amnesty, they demand progress in territorial matters with the referendum. Furthermore, neither of the two parties wants an agreement that goes beyond the investiture, which complicates things even more for Sánchez, who aspires to also tie up the 2024 budgets to guarantee a minimum time in Moncloa. Junts has warned that they are still “far away” from a “historic” agreement like the one Carles Puigdemont demanded at the beginning of September: the former president demands that, before the investiture, certain preconditions be met that involve abandoning judicial proceedings against the independence movement. with an amnesty law, the creation of a “mediation and verification” mechanism for the “lack of trust” in the PSOE and establishing as a legal framework the “limits” defined by international treaties (that is, going beyond the Constitution ).
In this sense, the amnesty does seem on track despite the fact that it is still in the negotiation phase, but it seems complicated for the PSOE to accept mediation and verification and that is what Míriam Nogueras criticized on Friday after meeting with Sánchez: the post-convergent spokesperson pointed out that They are not going to continue working as they have done with Esquerra during the last four years because they consider that “it has not worked” since there have been non-compliance. It also seems that there is a lack of understanding between the limits set by Junts (international law) and the PSOE (Constitution).
In any case, this week quite a few things will be clarified because the Consell per la República chaired by Puigdemont, holds a vote between October 17 and 23 to decide whether they support Sánchez’s investiture. The results are not binding because they are not the bases of Junts and ERC, but they can greatly influence the course of the negotiations and be a new warning from the most radical sectors to Puigdemont.
Nor has the PNV, Sánchez’s most faithful partner during the last legislature, guaranteed a “yes” to the PSOE, although it does seem to accept linking an investiture agreement to the 2024 budgets. The image projected by the Basque nationalists suggests that The agreement is more affordable, although it does not seem like it will be imminent. Bildu, on the other hand, already assumes its “yes” to Sánchez after the photo in Congress between the socialist leader and Mertxe Aizpurua, convicted of glorifying terrorism, an unprecedented image.
With this scenario, it is not strange that Sánchez publicly recognizes the complexity of the investiture, sending signals of less optimism. In fact, just yesterday, at an event in Mérida with Guillermo Fernández Vara, he even made reference to that circumstance on two occasions: “Despite the complexity of the negotiations we have underway, I trust that there will be a progressive government.” , he initially said; “It’s going to be difficult, but I ask you for calm, common sense and respect because we are going to work for a progressive government,” he added later.
And, unlike the last legislature, in this one it will have to be tied to the support of ERC, Junts, Bildu and PNV. Furthermore, in the next year and a half there will be an election in the Basque Country and Catalonia and that will condition the movements of all the parties. Despite the prudence that he tries to project, Sánchez also assumes that he will govern for four years or, at least, that is the message he wanted to send to the bases yesterday at the event in Mérida to show confidence in the coming weeks. .
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