2023-05-12 16:32:00
Finally, Ukraine gets a long-range precision weapon. The Storm Shadow warhead can even destroy Putin’s prestige bridge to Crimea. But one fact makes the new weapon vulnerable.
For a long time, Kiev has been demanding longer-range precision weapons. Britain has now agreed to supply Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Missiles are probably already in the country. Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace said: “Are now going into, or are in the country itself.” That would not be surprising either, the actual decision was made before the announcement. The Strom Shadow is launched from an airplane. It is not an autonomous system, but relies on the correct launch devices being installed and tested on a suitable aircraft. It has already happened.
High range of the bunker buster
The Storm Shadow has a range of over 250 kilometers. How big the effective deployment zone will be depends on where the jets launch them. If they venture over Russian-controlled territory, the depth of penetration would be much greater than if they were released well ahead of the front line to keep the jets out of range of Russian anti-aircraft defenses.
The missile flies at subsonic speeds, hits the target accurately and can carry a 500-kilogram warhead. A direct hit, for example, could not only damage the roadway of the Crimean Bridge, but destroy it. The Storm Shadow’s warhead is optimized for destroying hardened, bunkered targets. A first warhead breaks through the concrete, a second detonates inside. Wallace did not say how many missiles Kiev is receiving. But Great Britain alone has around 900 of these cruise missiles.
In addition, the Storm Shadow can move at low altitude, taking advantage of the terrain profile. The weapon weighs 1300 kilograms. In the west, the Storm Shadow is used, among other things, by the Tornado, in the Ukraine the remaining front-line bombers SU-24 should come into question. With this type, tests were already carried out with the Storm Shadow in Poland in 2022.
Numerous worthwhile destinations
The delivery therefore comes as no surprise, it has been brought up several times, testing in Poland showed that it would only be a matter of time before the decision would be made public. And that has now happened in the so-called shaping phase of the Kiev offensive. If Kiev has actually agreed not to use the weapons against targets in Russia proper, the area of application will shrink significantly. In Russia, the missile could hit many military airports and resupply centers.
If Russia’s territory is taboo, the occupied areas including Crimea remain, where the missile is likely to be used against fuel and ammunition depots, airports and naval bases. Because of their ability as bunker busters, but also against command centers of all kinds. The Russians have placed the large supply depots so far behind the front that they can no longer be reached by the Himars rocket launchers. You can now be targeted again.
Most worthwhile destinations are the Crimean Bridge and – a little less spectacular – the railway lines that provide supplies for the Russian invading army. In any case, the missile must overcome the Russian defenses, which are strongest on the best targets. The Crimean Bridge remains endangered. Even if Russia manages to launch many missiles, one or two hits are enough to sever Putin’s lifeline.
The jets are at risk
Russian supplies in Kherson collapsed after the Himars launchers hit the bridges across the Dnieper last fall, and that could happen again. Overall, a lot of Storm Shadows were built. British and French supplies alone can supply Ukraine for a long time. If many Storm Shadows are delivered, the missiles do not have to be saved for the central strategic goals, they could then also be used against bunkers and fortified positions or high-rise buildings like in Bachmut. So as a counterweight to the recently deployed Russian glide bombs. Strongly fortified positions and bunkers cannot or hardly be destroyed by light weapons.
The “bottleneck” of the mission are the jets necessary for the start. Russia will do everything possible to eliminate them. Since each Storm Shadow requires a jet to launch, it’s difficult to launch large waves of missiles at once. It is still speculation, but it can be assumed that the delivery of the missiles will soon be followed by the delivery of Western fighter jets.
The delivery of the “Storm Shadow” was described as a “game changer”. That can be the case, at least for a while. Even if Russia eventually finds ways to shoot down jets or missiles or jam the weapon’s electronics, there’s a learning curve involved. In the first phase, the weapon should penetrate, and that may be enough to cut off Russian supply lines and take out high-level targets such as command bunkers or even Black Sea Fleet ships.
Putin is helpless
Russia itself cannot prevent the West from becoming ever more involved. The Russian armed forces are struggling to avert a defeat in Ukraine, and a military escalation on NATO territory is practically impossible. The only thing left to the Kremlin is the nuclear threat. But it was worn out by constant repetition. As in the past, Moscow has to watch more or less impotently as the West gradually increases its support for Ukraine.
In a two-month rhythm, the former taboos are overturned. This leads to a long-term shift in power. The “ancient T-55s versus modern Leopard 2s” image is exaggerated, but it illustrates the situation. The Russian troops cannot fully compensate for the losses and the consumption of modern material, these gaps are filled by “oldies”. Better than nothing, one might say, but overall the level of the Russian armed forces is declining. The material losses in the Ukraine are partly filled up with old material – for example by Leopard 1 or even by T-55. But in addition, significant amounts of modern material arrive.
While the Russians tend to be less and less equipped, the Ukrainians are getting better equipment. Putin cannot reverse this movement. Even if it were possible to massively increase Russian arms production, the losses cannot be fully and adequately replaced. In the West, on the other hand, it is primarily a political decision. If it is politically desired, the production of armaments and ammunition can increase very sharply in the long term.
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