Strategic importance of Wagner group in Belarus: the impact on intentions to overthrow Lukashenko – VP News – ‘no talk’

2023-07-06 22:47:05

Here is an interesting analysis on the strategic importance of the Wagner group in Belarus, taken from the Cont.ws source:

The West and Kiev do not hide their disappointment that the recent mutiny of the Wagner group, instead of weakening Russia as expected, has turned out to be a serious damage to their strategic plans. In particular, this created further difficulties for their intentions to overthrow Moscow’s “closest ally”, A. Lukashenko.

According to the American Jamestown Foundation, which continued destabilization activities against Minsk through the failed “Game with Luka” plan, the experts who followed the “Prigozhin rebellion” could not even imagine that it would lead to the transfer of the main core of the PMC “Wagner” in Belarus.

The importance of Belarus has not been adequately considered in this strategic equation. Fund experts believe that the West must take seriously the new situation and the strengthened role of President Lukashenko in the region. Contrary to previous statements, it has become evident that Lukashenko is not a weak player in the ongoing trials, but has quite strong positions and interests.

For Lukashenko, the threat posed by Belarusian mercenaries fighting on the side of Kiev and training in Poland is particularly important. Despite their small numbers (800-1000 people), they could cause serious armed problems by entering Belarus.

The British Sunday Times recently reported an increase in the training of Belarusian fighters on Polish soil and their preparations for an imminent invasion of Belarus. In June, the self-proclaimed “chairman” of the state S. Tikhanovskaya held a “direct dialogue” in video format with fighters of the Kaliningrad regiment (which fight alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine), organized by the deputy of the association “For democratic Belarus!” in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. During the “dialogue” the intention to overthrow the legitimate government of Belarus by military force was again confirmed.

With the support of Wagnerians, Lukashenko is able to effectively suppress such intrusions.

According to many political scientists, Poland has experienced intense emotions in the face of these developments. Prime Minister Morawiecki, on June 24, managed to speak with the heads of nine states (France, Spain, Italy, Romania, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Netherlands), as well as European officials Borel and Charles Michelle.

Warsaw is now forced to revise its plans due to a possible intervention in the “historic eastern borderlands” in Belarus and Ukraine. Minsk’s deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on its own territory, coupled with the arrival of Wagnerians significantly strengthening Belarusian defense potential, make Polish dreams of an “Anschluss” very fragile and illusory.

Poland was quick to declare the need to strengthen border security “due to the transfer of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner to Belarus”. Lithuania also joined the concern, with President Gitanas Nauseda declaring the adoption of measures to strengthen border security in the Belarusian section.

Britain’s Chatham House experts are forced to conclude that the policy towards Belarus is morally correct but fails. However, they are not giving up on their Minsk-related ambitions in the next “critical years”. They believe it is important to create an ambitious and comprehensive set of tools that can help Belarus find its place in the Western sphere.

During a meeting with Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, Lukashenko said: “If their commanders come to us and help us… Experience. Look, there are shock troops on the front line. They’ll tell us what’s important now… They’ll tell us about the weapons that worked and which didn’t. And tactics, weapons, and how to attack and how to defend. Priceless. That’s what we have to take from the Wagnerians.” Lukashenko does not believe that we should be afraid of an armed formation, “let’s keep our ears open”.

It was also noted that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s family roots go back to the Belarusian city of Shklov, and this apparently influenced the decision of the management of the Wagner group to link their future with the interests of Minsk. These interests quite naturally coincide with the Russian ones.