Struggle for power, urban guerrilla warfare, evacuations… Understanding everything about the Sudanese conflict

by time news

2023-04-23 13:16:54

The Eid festival, which began on Friday to celebrate the end of Ramadan, did not really allow a truce. For a week, intense fighting has raged in Sudan, causing thousands of deaths, and the concern of the international community. 20 Minutes takes stock of these clashes that are tearing one of the poorest countries in the world apart.

What are the origins of the conflict in Sudan?

A struggle at the top of the state, devastating consequences. Since April 15, fighting has pitted the troops of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, head of the army and de facto ruler of Sudan, against Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

In 2021, the two generals seized power by organizing a putsch, but have since become rivals. The FSR, created in 2013, brings together thousands of former Janjawids, Arab militiamen recruited by the former dictator Omar el-Bashir, ousted in 2019, to fight ethnic minorities in Darfur. Long latent and confined to negotiations on the conditions of integration of the FSR into regular troops, to finalize a political agreement on the return of civilians to power, the conflict between the two generals turned into an armed struggle.

The combat zones extend to several districts of Kharthoum, the capital, populated by five million inhabitants terrorized by the situation. Airstrikes, tanks in the streets, urban guerrillas… Many districts of the capital are surrounded and the conflict spreads to other regions, in particular to Darfur, one of the poorest areas of Sudan.

For seven days, the two camps have claimed to hold many strategic buildings, including the airport. But the air raids, crossfire and fighting are so intense that it is impossible to go and check on the spot. A report released by the World Health Organization (WHO) reports 413 dead and 3,551 injured in the fighting.

What are the first consequences of the conflict?

Since the start of the fighting, between 10,000 and 20,000 people have found refuge in Chad. This neighboring country already hosts more than 400,000 Sudanese refugees. Some experts expect “an exodus of civilians at the first ceasefire”. The violence has put “70% of the hospitals in the combat zone out of service”, according to the doctors’ unions, in a country where nearly a third of the population suffers from hunger.

The conflict has also shaken the international community. On Sunday, Pope Francis called for “dialogue” in the face of the strike situation. France has begun a “rapid evacuation operation” of some 250 nationals and its diplomatic staff. A few hours before the Quai d’Orsay, Washington announced the evacuation of its embassy. Other countries such as Italy and Saudi Arabia have also evacuated their nationals for security reasons.

Which other countries are involved?

According to experts in the region, interviewed by AFP, a quick military outcome seems unlikely; all the ingredients are there for a conflict ready to settle down over time. “The challenge is that the conflict, because it is spreading in every corner of the country, touches the border with Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia. This is a huge concern, ”worries Cameron Hudson, analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, questioned by AFP.

According to him, both sides are trying to attract other protagonists. The paramilitary group Wagner, very active in Ukraine, operates discreetly, as it exploits the country’s gold mines. Experts also agree that Egypt supports the army, while the United Arab Emirates encourages the RSF. Libya, Central Africa, Chad and Ethiopia in particular are also likely to play a political or even military role. “If Sudan enters a dark tunnel, everyone will pay the price,” predicts Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political science professor.

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