Super-diffusion events and reinfections also reported in Europe. Now the cases reported are for less serious: perhaps the data linked to the denominator of the infected is wider. The first field study, still with limited numbers, reports infections even after the third dose
Data released by the Institute for Infectious Diseases in South Africa which is monitoring the Omicron wave in the Pretoria district suggests that the share of people developing serious illness or dying is significantly lower than in previous coronavirus waves, although officials have pointed out that the results are preliminary and the situation could change as the wave spreads.
31% of Covid positive patients admitted to hospitals of Pretoria in the last 25 days has requested specialist or ICU care compared to two-thirds of patients in previous waves.
In-hospital mortality rates are also significantly lower at this stage. 4% of Covid patients hospitalized in the last 25 days died, compared to 20% of the previous two waves. There appears to be no correlation between disease severity rate or death with age.
We are only at the beginning but there are positive signs that indicate that most of the hospitalized patients are not serious and many of them arrive at the hospital for other medical reasons and discover with swabs that they are positive for the coronavirus, he said. Joe Phaahla, minister of health of South Africa. The data confirms the previous report.
The consequences of the widest audience of infected
Based on the data, in the comparison between Delta and Omicron the hospitalization rate of positives appears much lower for this last wave, the percentage of admissions to intensive care is even lower.
However, what emerges from the data from the Gueteng, epicenter of the Omicron epidemic in South Africa, which although the tace of hospitalization is lower than that seen with Delta, the number of patients hospitalized per week greater since the number of susceptible people is much larger due to the extreme contagiousness
of Omicron (rated even 500 times higher than the original Wuhan strain).
Each individual, if vaccinated, is therefore less likely to face serious consequences, but the rapid growth of total positives statistically leads to a greater number of hospitalizations with serious consequences for the health system.
Between the cases the reinfections and the denominator widens
Omicron may seem milder
, without for changing its virulence, but it could be just appearance as he explains on twitter Natalie E. Dean, professor of biostatistics, specializing in infectious diseases and vaccines at the Rollins school of public Health.
The denominator for calculating severe cases also includes the reinfezioni. With a variant with a high capacity for reinfection, among the susceptible population the severity of cases does not change: always severe, moderate, mild, asymptomatic. Only that now we see reinfections and these are generally not serious.
It is not yet possible to calculate the portion of severe cases, which is now lower than the previous waves: but not lower because there are fewer severe cases, but because there are milder cases with reinfections.
A sketch to explain how a new variant may appear milder even with no change in underlying virulence. This can occur because, when calculating the fraction of cases that are severe, the denominator now includes many re-infections that had previously been averted. A thread. 1/8 pic.twitter.com/XxrYHnb6XY
— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) December 9, 2021
Super-broadcast events
To worry about the number of Omicron reinfections
reported in recent days not only in South Africa but also in the rest of the world with super-broadcast events.
A Oslo, a corporate Christmas party in a restaurant that has become a very popular event: 80 out of 111 people between the ages of 30 and 50 have tested positive for Covid and in at least 17 cases positive for the Omicron variant, but the epidemiological investigation is not completed. Most of them were vaccinated and with the exception of one person they were all symptomatic with sore throat, headache, fever but none needed hospitalization according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Another 60 people who attended the restaurant the same evening as the group tested positive, demonstrating Omicron’s high contagiousness.
In Denmark53 out of 150 high school students who attended a party tested positive for the Micron.
The laboratory investigations
How much can Omicron really bypass vaccine protection? Certainly the new variant has shown a certain evasive capacity, but the data are preliminary.
A study published as a preprint last week that analyzed 35,670 reinfections among nearly 2.8 million positive tests carried out as of the end of November in South Africa suggests that a previous Covid-19 infection offers only half the protection against the new variant. This is a sign that Omicron able to escape at least some of the immune system’s defenses and indicates that Covid-19 vaccines may also be less effective against the new variant.
Other laboratory investigations show that two doses of the vaccine are not sufficient to neutralize Omicron (sufficient to ward off serious disease). The third dose for it would multiply antibodies against the disease by 25. The data are very preliminary and other studies are expected to show a more linear picture in the coming days.
The first field report: bad news
The third dose of the vaccine for may not be enough as a report shows, the first in the field, which highlights the formidable evasion of Omicron’s immune response.
The report is about only 7 German patients who had been in South Africa for work or vacation: the average age was 27, tall goes
vaccinated with mRNA vaccines and booster dose performed at the beginning of November.
Everyone was infected with Omicron and showed mild and moderate Covid symptoms (sore throat, headache, dry cough). Nobody needed to go to the hospital. Concerns that their antibody levels were high yet they failed to avoid the disease, albeit mild.
December 11, 2021 (change December 11, 2021 | 16:48)
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